Brent Strengthens, Russia to Extend Diesel Export Ban

The Jan’27 Brent futures contract strengthened this afternoon, from $109.11/bbl at 13:50 GMT to $110.62/bbl at 17:13 GMT (time of writing). The Dec’26 Brent futures contract is currently printing at $114.85/bbl. In the news, Russia will extend its diesel export ban through year-end while allowing some companies to ship fuel under a quota system to meet its new export commitment to the US, according to Reuters. Quotas will quadruple from Oct levels to 2Mmt in Nov, with shipments under existing intergovernmental agreements continuing. Deputy PM Alexander Novak said refineries are recovering quickly from repairs. The sources said utilisation rose 25% by end-Oct as drone attacks subsided. The current ban expires 31 Oct. Relatedly, the tanker Leruo, carrying Russian diesel originally bound for Brazil, has changed its destination to "Atlantic coast for order," LSEG shipping data showed. Earlier data showed at least 2 ultra-low sulphur diesel tankers loaded at Primorsk were first heading to traditional destinations, signalling Turkey and Brazil. The Leruo left Primorsk on 16 Oct, signalling Manaus, Brazil as its destination. In other news, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said today that the government plans to lift its target gasoline pump price by 5 yen/L each month from Dec through next spring, to contain mounting fuel subsidy costs. Takaichi said the government will monitor crude oil prices closely as it revises the target. Finally, as of the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’27 and Jan/Jul’27 Brent futures spreads are at $3.63/bbl and $16.04/bbl, respectively.

Volatile afternoon, with the Dated complex resuming the sell-off and the prompt taking the hit. Nov'26 DFL slid from $5.30/bbl to $4.43/bbl just after 16:00, $4.50/bbl at the end of the window and around $1.00/bbl under last night’s close, before bouncing to $4.88/bbl after it on buying at $4.90/bbl. Dec'26 DFL held around $5.75/bbl on steady buying, so the Nov/Dec'26 DFL roll fell from -$0.55/bbl to -$1.25/bbl, last -$1.00/bbl, where refiners bought. Nov/Dec'26 Dated dropped from $3.45/bbl to $2.50/bbl at the end of the window before bouncing to $3.12/bbl, while Jan'27 DFL firmed from $4.13/bbl to $4.31/bbl into selling. Nov'26 Dated/Dubai came off from $2.89/bbl to $2.44/bbl, about $1.25 under last night’s close.

The physical window drove it: a Producer offered the Midland curve, a Tradehouse Ninian cargoes and a Major Oseberg, taking the physical differential down more than $2 to flat. The paper made its lows inside the window and bounced once it closed.

In the days market, 29-31 Dec'26 v 04-08 Jan'27 was paid at $0.75/bbl and 03-09 Dec'26 v Dec'26 bought by real players at $1.47/bbl in size. Also saw Dec'26 v 04-15 Jan'27 going at $3.35/bbl and a large daily DFL 30 Oct'26-13 Nov'26 sale at $4.00/bbl post window, firmer since.

This afternoon in Brent/Dubai we traded in a tight range, the Nov'26 Brent/Dubai between -$2.27/bbl to -$2.10/bbl before coming off late to finish around -$2.40/bbl. Early on there was buying of Nov'26 Dub vs Feb'27 ICE cross month in size. Tradehouse was both bid and offered in Nov'26 and Dec'26 Brent/Dubai, the Dec'26 trading around -$2.38/bbl before selling off late to -$2.56/bbl. There was also tradehouse buying of Dec'26 EFS around $5.29/bbl. The Dubai spreads came off, with major and trade derivs buying of the Nov/Dec'26 Dubai spread around $3.54/bbl, before trading down from $3.55/bbl to $3.38/bbl. The Nov/Dec'26 box was well bid, tradehouse buying around $0.20/bbl, and traded up to $0.36/bbl.

Sing 0.5 spreads continued to trade at this morning’s elevated levels while cracks traded marginally higher, Euro 0.5 saw slightly better liquidity and spreads were better bid. Nov/Dec Sing traded between $42.00/mt and $42.50/mt, Dec/Jan continued to trade at $41.00/mt. Nov Sing crack traded up 40c to $30.30/bbl in the early afternoon, liquidity began to dry up then and it traded back down to $30.15/bbl, Nov 0.5 E/W is implied 75c higher to $195.25/mt. Euro 0.5 spread liquidity improved this afternoon with Nov/Dec trading up from $15.00/mt to $16.50/mt and Dec/Jan gained a dollar to $16.50/mt, Nov Barge crack was rangebound trading between -$0.80/bbl and -$0.55/bbl.

The real buying on 380 continued into the afternoon with Nov/Dec getting bid up from $59.50/mt to $61.25/mt, Dec/Jan traded 50c higher to $44.75/mt. Nov 380 crack was less liquid than expected this afternoon but still traded up 50c to $13.40/bbl, this coupled with real selling on the Barge crack pushed the 380 E/W to a new all time high of $150.00/mt. Barge spreads also sold off with Nov/Dec trading down from $25.75/mt to $21.50/mt, Dec/Jan traded 3 dollars lower to $20.25/mt while Nov Barge crack was offered down from -$8.70/bbl to -$10.25/bbl.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads were scale back offered in Dec/Jan'27, trading from $3.20/bbl up to $3.35/bbl, while front E/W saw mixed interest, with trading between -$147.00/mt and -$145.00/mt and Q1'27 selling down to -$94.00/mt. Regrade was bid initially, with Nov'26 up to $0.10/bbl before selling back down to -$0.35/bbl on Nov/Dec'26 kero selling.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads firmed overall, with Dec/Jan'27 trading from $38.00/mt up to $40.25/mt, while Dec'26 futures cracks firmed from $69.50/bbl up to $70.50/bbl. European jet diffs were sell side initially before finding buying at $94.00/mt in Nov'26.

This afternoon we saw gasoline weaken post US open before bouncing back into the window, pushing Nov'26 RBBRs up from 9.50c/gal to 11.25c/gal. EBOB cracks saw mixed interest in the front, trading at $14.40/bbl post window and there was good selling in Q3'27 at $22.20/bbl. Spreads continued to see better sellside interest in the Nov/Feb'27 region, with Nov/Dec'26 remaining range-bound around $30.00/mt. E/W was balanced around $0.50/bbl in Nov'26 with 92 spreads better offered, Nov/Dec'26 was valued at $3.50/bbl.

This afternoon in naphtha matching was better offered, and cracks in Nov softening in the window to -$3.90/bbl end window from -$3.75/bbl. Nov/Dec'26 Euro saw better sellside in the window easing from highs of $44.50/mt in the afternoon down to $42/mt in the window and Q1 cracks were valued at -$5.85/bbl. E/W firmed a touch in the front with Dec trading $74/mt and Cal $44.25/mt whilst MOPJ spreads also remained better buy-side with Nov/Dec trading up to $44.25/mt and Dec/Feb buying at $71.50/mt.

This afternoon in NGLs, FEI structure rebounded after the weak CP settle this morning. Nov/Dec'26 FEI busted through this morning’s levels trading at $58.00/mt and $59.00/mt up from $55.00/mt seen this morning. Dec/Dec'26 FEI rebounded strongly to $308.00/mt trading at $305.00/mt along the way. This was up from $295.00/mt seen this morning. FEI/CP remained illiquid with Dec'26 FEI/CP strengthening slightly to $253.00/mt traded from $251.00/mt.

FEI/MOPJs continued to be strong with Q1'27 FEI/MOPJ going at -$27.00/mt after first trading at -$29.00/mt. Nov'26 FEI/MOPJ was printing $26.00/mt to close.

Europe was also strong this afternoon. Nov/Dec'26 NWE traded from $33.00/mt post Sing window to $37.00/mt to close.

Europe was also implied stronger through pronap bids. Nov'26 Pronap traded at -$103.00/mt which was up from -$112.00/mt seen earlier this morning. We also saw selling of the Nov/Dec'26 EPC/NWE, also implying stronger NWE at -$170.00/mt.

The Arb was firm this afternoon as both LST and FEI structure were equally strong. Nov'26 LST/FEI traded around -$393.00/mt and -$392.00/mt and Dec'26 LST/FEI traded around -$342.00/mt and -$340.00/mt.

LST structure was stronger this afternoon. Q1/Q2'27 LST traded up to 16.00c/gal up from 15.875c/gal earlier in the afternoon and up from 14.875c/gal yesterday.

Butane structure continues to rally. Nov'26 Butane flat price rips through 200.00c/gal while the prompt spread trades 15.25c/gal up from 12.25c/gal seen during the US window. C4/C3 EPC/LST traded 75.00c/gal up from 68.00c/gal traded yesterday. Q1/Q4'27 Butane traded 41.50c/gal before stepping up to 42.00c/gal.