Brent Declines as Vance Requests To Contact Tehran Over Medical Supplies

In the news, Iran's IRGC Navy has said that it struck 3 tankers that had switched off their radar and navigation systems while trying to leave through what it called the "unauthorised southern route" of the Strait of Hormuz. The navy also said it captured a US spy drone west of the Strait. IRGC spokesperson Hossein Mohebi said the waterway will stay closed until the US meets Iran's demands, telling Fars news agency it is under the "strategic control of the Iranian armed forces" and "will never be opened until the Islamic Republic's conditions are fully met." Meanwhile, US President Trump was reported to have approved Vice President JD Vance's request to contact Iran over Tehran's "need for help with medical supplies." Vance wrote to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, to discuss the prospect of a peace deal and restart talks. This follows Trump's comments last week, as he said that the US was "…not negotiating with [Iran], we are going to have something one way or another, it'll happen soon." In other news, Shell reported its highest quarterly profit since 2022 and raised its share buybacks, as high energy prices and record refining margins helped it beat expectations. The oil major posted Q3 net profit of $10.81Bn, above estimates of $10.33Bn and nearly double the $5.43Bn earned a year earlier. Finally, the Jan/Feb’27 and Jan/Jul’27 Brent futures spreads are at $3.68/bbl and $15.33/bbl, respectively.

Another busy morning, with the Dated complex steadying after yesterday’s sell-off and the DFLs edging back above last night’s close. Nov'26 DFL climbed from $5.56/bbl to $5.65/bbl and was last seen at $5.61/bbl, about 10c up on the day, while Dec'26 DFL did slightly better, from $5.75/bbl to $5.85/bbl with 500 lots at the high. Jan'27 DFL softened from $4.20/bbl to $4.15/bbl and Jan/Feb'27 DFL traded 0.60. Nov/Dec'26 Dated firmed from a 3.50 low to $3.60/bbl, with Dec/Jan'27 Dated following from $4.55/bbl to $4.57/bbl. In Dubai, Jan'27 Dated/Dubai held around $2.18/bbl on 800 lots and has eased since. Further down the curve, Q1'27 DFL held around $3.64/bbl, Feb'27 DFL traded 3.50 and Q3'27 DFL 2.00.

The days market saw 23-27 Nov'26 v Nov'26 going through at $0.15/bbl in 700 lots and $16.00/bbl-20 Nov'26 v Nov'26 traded 0.65. Also saw real selling of Nov'26 v 18-24 Nov'26 at -$0.53/bbl, which has firmed since, and 9-10 Nov'26 v Nov'26 sold at $0.03/bbl.

This morning in Brent/Dubai we gapped lower, with the Nov'26 Brent/Dubai opening around -$1.83/bbl, down from -$1.69/bbl last night, and sold off into the window, trading down to -$2.23/bbl. Post window we traded range-bound between -$2.15/bbl to -$2.10/bbl. There was selling of Nov'26 Dub vs Dec'26 Brent swap cross month by Chinese, as well as buying of Dec'26 Dub vs Feb'27 ICE cross month. There was bank selling of Nov/Jan'27 box around$0.00/bbl. The Dubai spreads were well bid, the Nov/Dec'26 dub spread trading up from $3.30/bbl to $3.63/bbl. The boxes moved lower, the Nov/Dec'26 box down from $0.35/bbl to $0.19/bbl and the Dec/Jan'27 box from -$0.18/bbl to -$0.34/bbl.

Sing 0.5 opened slightly lower before it encountered real buying and traded considerably higher, Euro 0.5 struggled for liquidity again and saw limited price action. Nov/Dec'26 Sing opened at $40.00/mt and traded at this level until the end of the window when it was bid up to $41.00/mt and then rallied further to $42.25/mt post window, Dec/Jan'27 opened 75c lower at $39.75/mt before turning better bid and trading up to $41.25/mt. Nov'26 Sing crack initially opened 30c lower at $29.45/bbl, it was bid up to $29.80/bbl by window end and continued to rally up to $30.10/bbl, Nov'26 0.5 E/ is yet to trade but is implied around 2 dollars higher at $194.50/mt. Euro 0.5 remained thin, Nov/Dec'26 traded at $15.00/mt while Nov'26 crack continued to trade at -$0.60/bbl.
380 strengthened this morning, spreads opened at similar levels to yesterday’s close and briefly traded lower before turning better bid, Nov/Dec'26 opened at $58.50/mt before trading down to $57.50/mt pre window and then rallying to $59.50/mt, Dec/Jan'27 similarly opened at $43.00/mt and traded down to $42.50/mt before real buying came in and it was bid up to $44.25/mt. Nov'26 380 crack sold off from $12.60/bbl to $11.90/bbl, towards the end of the window interest turned buyside and it was bid back up to $12.90/bbl, this and Barge weakness drove Nov'26 380 E/W 3 dollars higher to $135.75/mt. Barge complex weakened this morning with Nov/Dec'26 opening 75c lower at $26.50/mt and then continuing to sell down to $25.75/mt, Nov'26 Barge crack opened 20c lower at -$8.50/bbl and then traded 20c lower to -$8.70/bbl.

This morning in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads saw strong selling, with Nov/Dec hit from $2/bbl down to $1.30/bbl and Dec/Jan hit down to $3.25/bbl. Nov E/W sold off to lows of -$155/mt before firming back to -$148/mt. Regrade was bid in Dec at $1.25/bbl, while Q1 was sell side at $2.20/bbl basis combo flow. Prompt ICE gasoil spreads weakened overall, with Nov/Dec trading from $62.00/mt down to $58.25/mt, while Dec futures cracks weakened to $70.10/bbl.

This mornio $75.5/bbl.

This morning gasoline was weak. 92 was very well offered, with Nov'26 cracks getting sold down from $18.25/bbl to $16.00/bbl. Spreads followed the same pattern, as Nov/Dec'26 came off from $4.75/bbl to lows of $3.30/bbl and E/W weakened from $1.50/bbl to $0.88/bbl with EBOB slightly more balanced. EBOB cracks opened lower at $15.00/bbl but traded back up to $15.45/bbl. Spreads were better offered overall but there was good gasnaph box buying in the Nov/March'27 region.

This morning in NGLs, FEI structure was initially firm with Nov/Dec'26 FEI opening at $57.00/mt this morning. However, as the CP print came in very weak at $720.00/mt for C3 and $780.00/mt for C4, FEI spreads sold off. Nov/Dec'26 FEI gapped down to $52.00/mt before recovering to $55.00/mt by the end window. Q2/Q3'27 FEI traded multiple times at $56.00/mt post the CP print. Dec/Dec'26 FEI traded at $280.00/mt which was down from printing $300.00/mt yesterday. The Dec/Jan'27/Feb'27 FEI fly saw large Sing trade buying at -$3.00/mt which was up from -$3.50/mt traded yesterday.
FEI/MOPJs were illiquid this morning with Dec'26 FEI/MOPJ traded in -$11.00/mt end window.
There was some buying of Butane this morning with Nov'26 Flat price.
The arb was also quiet this morning with the Dec'26 Arb trading at -$337.00/mt.
FEI/CP in Nov'26 was implied around $300.00/mt by the CP settle and Dec'26 FEI/CP was printing $238.00/mt post CP settle with Dec'26 CP trading around $730.00/mt.
C3 CP settled $720.00/mt which was massively down from the $775.00/mt levels traded yesterday. Dec'26 CP flat price traded $772.00/mt pre settle gapping own to lows of $717.00/mt.
On screen Nov'26 FEI traded $1024.00/mt during end window.

The Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4% in a 10-2 vote, with two members pushing for a hike. Chair Warsh said inflation remains elevated and the Fed is ready to act. "We haven't achieved price stability, but we're working on it." "While overall financial conditions are tighter, I’m unwilling and unable to call them TIGHT."

The FOMC reaction looked muted. It wasn’t. Real yields: lower at every tenor Breakevens: higher at every tenor 1y breakeven: +6bp 2s10s: +6bp steeper 10y: still above 5% Bonds aren’t pricing a tighter Fed. They’re pricing a more tolerant one. Concerns about credibility will start again.

Oracle ripped about 11% to roughly $144, its best day since May, after forecasting over $225B in fiscal 2030 revenue and capping new funding at $20 billion. 3. AI infrastructure stocks rallied with it. Google fell 9% after hours after posting negative free cash flow of $9.07B, with search revenue of $63.35B missing estimates. Microsoft jumped as much as 6% after record revenue of $92.3 billion.