Brent Trades Rangebound as Houthis Declare Maritime Blockade

In the news, Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis have announced a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, marking a further escalation in regional tensions. The group said the blockade takes effect immediately in response to what it described as Saudi Arabia's "siege" of Yemen. While Saudi Arabia has not yet responded, any closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would effectively halt Saudi crude exports to Asia and could disrupt around 7% of global oil supply. In the US, the national average gasoline prices have risen above $4/gal for the first time since the Iran war began, as renewed US-Iran hostilities continue to disrupt energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. According to AAA, average pump prices have climbed more than 30% since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran at the end of February, reaching $4.0030/gal on Monday. Elsewhere, ship-to-ship (STS) oil transfers outside the Strait of Hormuz have slowed following the recent wave of Iranian attacks on commercial vessels, according to satellite data and Reuters sources. Since the Iran war began, STS transfers have helped keep Gulf crude flowing by allowing shuttle tankers to move cargoes through the Strait before transferring them to vessels waiting in open waters. This has enabled ships to avoid transiting the Strait themselves and reduced the need for complex security and insurance arrangements. These transfers typically took place in the Gulf of Oman, though satellite imagery from 18 Jun showed only 2 tankers involved in transfers outside Hormuz. In China, fuel oil exports, primarily for marine bunkering, rose 55% m/m in June to 577kb/d, the highest monthly level of 2026 so far, according to customs data. Exports were up 18% y/y, bringing first-half 2026 volumes to 10.87Mmt, a 7.7% increase from the same period last year. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month (Sep/Oct) and 6-month (Sep/Mar’27) Brent futures spreads are at $2.00/bbl and $8.66/bbl, respectively.

This afternoon in Brent/Dubai was very quiet, as we traded rangebound between $5.65/bbl to $5.90/bbl. There was a US tender hedge and buying of Sep Brent/Dubai, which traded up from $5/bbl to $5.20/bbl. Chinese players were seen selling the cross-month, and banks sold Q4 and Q1 Brent/Dubai. The Dubai spreads traded rangebound, with the Aug/Sep between $1/bbl to $1.10/bbl. The boxes were very quiet, some trade sellside interest of Aug vs Q4 Brent/Dubai box at $1.24/bbl.

This afternoon in Dated we saw Aug recover with Aug DFL trading up to $2.31/bbl into close and Aug Sep DFL flipping positive. We saw buying of 17-21 Aug vs 25-1 Sep at $0.38/bbl. We saw some selling in the front with 20-24 Jul vs Cal Aug getting hit down to -$0.80/bbl and 27-31 Jul CFD trading at -$0.20/bbl before it became better supported. The physical window was quiet with a major and refiner offering Brent and Forties cargos above the curve. The paper window was also quiet with a trade buying 27-31 CFD at $0.40/bbl.

A quiet end to the first day of the week in VLSFO. Spreads drifted off a touch with Aug/Sep Sing selling down to $39.50/mt while the Aug Sing crack traded down to $19.90/bbl. Euro continued to be fairly illiquid with the front Euro spread remaining around $23.00/mt while the Euro crack continued to trade around $7.50/bbl.

In HSFO, Chinese arbers were sellers of 380 flat price this afternoon, which saw the crack come under pressure, Aug sold down to -$3.40/bbl from -$2.80/bbl. Spreads came off as a result. 380 E/W also saw offers trading down to $28.75/mt while the barge strengthened a touch as a result closing the afternoon around -$7.90/bbl. Aug/Sep barges traded a touch higher up to $9.50/mt.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil was scale back bid in Sep/Oct on lower ICE gasoil. E/W had mixed interest with buying in Q4 up to -$59.50/mt. Regrade was thin but going well bid across the curve EOD in Oct and Q4. Kero spreads had interest both sides with scale back bids on lower ICE gasoil and also offers being lifted when we saw strength. Prompt ICE gasoil was strong post headline, trading up to highs of $58.50/mt in the front. Crack saw similar flows, peaking at $70.70/bbl in Aug. European jet diffs were weaker from Friday, finding value at $92.50/mt in Aug.

It was a choppy and rangebound market this afternoon in gasoline. Aug arbs traded between 25.60c/gal and 26c/gal, and Aug EBOB cracks saw mixed interest around $36.95/bbl, with Q4 bid up to highs of $16.95/bbl. Spreads were a touch weaker in the front, as Aug/Sep traded down from $75.75/mt to $74.50/mt. E/W was bidside, as Aug traded up from -$14.75/bbl to -$14.45/bbl, and Aug 92 cracks were valued at $22.65/bbl.

Relatively quiet and illiquid afternoon in naphtha. MOC touch better offered with mixed interest on the prompt crack during window, seeing Aug naphtha crack trade between -$2/bbl and -$2.15/bbl. Sep/Dec Europe better offered this afternoon with Dec/Feb region better bid. Buying in Nov E/W up to $39/mt from a tradehouse, with the Nov/Dec E/W box finding selling at $3/mt.

This afternoon in NGLs was relatively quiet across the curves. Aug/Sep FEI continued to come off slightly trading at $41/mt, down from the earlier window close of $43/mt. Sep/Oct also came off $2 to be trading at $22/mt on the afternoon. Aug LST/FEI found some support around the -$320/mt level, and the Sep arb had selling at -$275/mt and -$277/mt, down from -$265/mt at Friday’s close. A quieter afternoon for LST compared to previous days, but there was some spread selling out of Aug/Sep and Aug/Oct at -0.5c/gal and -0.875c/gal, respectively. The Aug/Sep/Oct LST fly was also sold at flat. In butane, C4 ENT Aug flat price traded rangebound between 103.875c/gal and 104.25c/gal across the afternoon. We also saw some Aug/Q4 26 C4 ENT buying at – 0.5c/gal. Had some good deferred C3 Conway spread buying, with Oct/Nov trading at -1.25c/gal, and Q4'26/ Q1'27 lifted at -1c/gal. Q1 N/S was lifted at -2c/gal.