Donna Dong
Research Analyst, Flux
Brent Declines to $66.23/bbl
Kazakhstan plans full Tengiz restart within a week; Lukoil asset bid, Balkan fuel risks, and rising Middle East military tensions
The Apr’26 Brent futures contract declined this morning, from $66.88/bbl at 08:55 GMT to $66.23/bbl at 10:20 GMT (time of writing).
In the news, Kazakhstan announced that the gradual restart of the extensive Tengiz oil field aims to restore full production within a week. This follows the loss of at least 7.2mb of output after three transformers were damaged in a fire. In related news, the country’s Energy Minister, Yerlan Akkenzhenov, has also submitted a bid to US authorities to acquire a stake in Russian oil producer Lukoil's energy projects. Under US sanctions, Lukoil has until 26 Feb to sell its assets. In other news, Montenegro could face fuel shortages due to nationwide protests and a truck driver blockade at the Adriatic port of Bar, caused by EU entry restrictions that threaten deportation over Schengen visit limits. As Montenegro's main entry point for overseas fuel, the port also hosts its largest fuel depots. Border blockades in Serbia, Bosnia, Montenegro, and North Macedonia, started on Monday, have halted a key route between the EU, Turkey, and the Middle East. The Montenegrin Energy Ministry stated that current fuel supplies are limited to the amounts available at petrol stations, enough for only a few days. They also advised the public to avoid buying excessive fuel amounts. In geopolitical news, US President Trump has announced plans for multi-day military exercises in the Middle East as it deploys its fleet, led by the USS Abraham Lincoln. The display of US air power comes amid indications from the White House that it might initiate new strikes on Iran. Air Forces Central stated that the exercise is “designed to enhance asset and personnel dispersal capability, strengthen regional partnerships and prepare for flexible response execution.” Reportedly, Iran has also issued a Notice to Airmen for military activity between 27-29 Jan. Finally, at the time of writing, the Apr/May and Apr/Oct spreads are at $0.57/bbl and $1.85/bbl, respectively.
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