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Lower Market Optimism, Gold Down, Treasury Yields Climb

Optimism fades as Iran strikes extend; equities fall, yields rise, jobs weaken, energy prices surge despite strong PMI data
Published: April 2, 2026
Written by:
Edward Hayden-Briffett

Edward Hayden-Briffett

Research Analyst, The Officials
Edward Hayden-Briffett
Reviewed by:
Donna Dong

Donna Dong

Research Analyst, Flux
Donna Dong

Market optimism evaporates as Trump says strikes on Iran to last another 2-3 weeks. Emini S&P 500 futures dropped 1.3% early this morning, gold fell to near $4,550/oz and 10-year Treasury yield rose to almost 4.4%.

Some solid US data: ISM Manufacturing PMI for March 52.7, above expectations of 52.5. But this is largely because war-related supply disruptions pushed up prices, rather than because demand improved meaningfully. Bad signs coming from employment market: manufacturing employment declined at a faster pace and increasing energy prices may lead to more job cuts. Oracle reportedly to fire up to 30k staff to spend more on AI instead.
Energy prices are the key everywhere: petrol prices rising in West Africa, jet fuel prices doubling in South Asia, Japan exploring LPG for crude exchange programs with various Asian nations.
Data today: US balance of trade. Most markets closed tomorrow but March NFPs published as usual (13:30 BST), also China RatingDog PMIs.

Written by

Edward Hayden-Briffett

Research Analyst, The Officials
Edward Hayden-Briffett

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