Giovanni Simonetti
Junior Data Analyst, Flux
Aug Brent at $93
Iran-US draft MOU eyes 60-day talks; Russia nears fuel export ban after refinery strikes; Iraq oil output hit, slow recovery.
The Aug’26 Brent Futures contract rose from $91.77/bbl at 13:36 BST to $94.56/bbl at 16:10 BST before softening to $93.16/bbl at 17:28 BST (time of writing).
Iranian state media says a draft US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding would start a 60-day negotiation period toward a wider peace deal. The reported framework includes a US military pullback near Iran, lifting the Strait of Hormuz blockade, and Iran restoring commercial shipping traffic to pre-war levels within a month while coordinating routes with Oman. Military vessels are reportedly excluded, and any final agreement could later become a binding UN Security Council resolution. Russia is reportedly preparing a broad ban on diesel and aviation fuel exports after Ukrainian drone strikes disabled about a quarter of the country’s oil refining capacity. Major refineries, including Ryazan, Moscow, Kirishi, and NORSI, were hit, disrupting roughly 25% of Russia’s diesel and 30% of gasoline production, prompting emergency talks led by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. Moscow had already imposed a gasoline export ban in April, and worsening refinery damage, combined with sanctions limiting repair parts, is now pushing officials toward stricter fuel controls. S&P Global estimates Iraq and other Middle Eastern producers could take about four months to restore roughly 80% of pre-war oil output after disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz conflict. Iraq’s production reportedly fell from about 4.3 mb/d to 1.3 mb/d, with exports dropping below 800kb/d, causing major revenue losses. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month Aug/Sep’26 spread is at $2.39/bbl, and the six-month Aug/Feb’27 spread is at $10.78/bbl.
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