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Brent Below $113/bbl

UAE-Iran clash, US-Iran tensions in Hormuz, Maersk transit limited, Ukraine hits KINEF refinery; spreads widen
Published: May 5, 2026
Written by:
Donna Dong

Donna Dong

Research Analyst, Flux
Donna Dong
Reviewed by:
Mita Chaturvedi

Mita Chaturvedi

Research Associate, Flux
Mita Chaturvedi
4 page report
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The Jul’26 Brent futures contract reached $114.43/bbl at 07.24 BST but has seen lower highs since, at $112.90/bbl at the time of writing at 11:16 BST.

In the news, the UAE has accused Iran of launching missile and drone attacks on Fujairah, damaging an oil refinery and injuring three people, marking the first strike since the 8 Apr ceasefire. Iran is yet to make an official statement on the matter. The UAE’s Ministry of Defence said its air defences “engaged” 12 ballistic missiles, three cruise missiles and four drones launched from Iran. US forces reportedly sank six Iranian small boats attempting to disrupt commercial shipping in “Project Freedom”, a US operation that started on Monday. This is aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran claims US forces struck civilian boats, killing five people, and denies they were linked to the IRGC. It says US destroyers entered the Strait of Hormuz with radar off, were detected, and then driven away after Iranian forces fired warning shots using drones and missiles. Iran warns that any further US naval entry will be treated as a ceasefire violation. A single Maersk vessel successfully transiting the Strait of Hormuz under tight escort is seen by Intertanko as insignificant, with no broader system in place to safely move the many ships still stranded. Ukrainian strike drones targeted one of Russia’s largest oil refineries, Kirishinefteorgsintez, owned by Surgutneftegas (20.1 mtpa). Firefighters are working on the fire after it started last night, with 18 drones also reportedly shot down in the area. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month (Jul/Aug) and 6-month (Jul/Jan) Brent futures spreads are at $6.25/bbl and $24.19/bbl, respectively.

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