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New Normal?

Iran war enters its third month; markets recalibrate towards higher prices and elevated volatility, a 'new normal'.
Published: May 4, 2026
Written by:
Vincent Wu

Vincent Wu

Research Associate, Flux
Vincent Wu
,
Mita Chaturvedi

Mita Chaturvedi

Research Associate, Flux
Mita Chaturvedi
and
Donna Dong

Donna Dong

Research Analyst, Flux
Donna Dong
16 page report
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As the Iran war enters its third full month, the conflict has shifted in form and intensity from kinetic to largely economic, following the ceasefire reached on 08 April, which was subsequently extended indefinitely. In our last monthly report, we pointed out that the conflict faced two binary outcomes: either a truce or escalation.

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