Brent Breaches $80/bbl While Trump Attends G7 Summit

In the news, US President Trump has vowed to publicly release the exact text of the peace agreement, which was electronically signed by the US and Iran. He also stated that he would send the agreement to Congress for review. However, the issue of Lebanon continues to be a point of contention, as Iran has demanded that Israel withdraw its forces from Lebanon. In related news, shipping concerns have acted as a floor to falling crude and refined product prices, as Asian and European companies hold off on attempting passage until more concrete details are released regarding the US-Iran peace deal. Elsewhere, QatarEnergy is prepared to quickly resume LNG production at its Ras Laffan plant, potentially reaching full capacity at unaffected facilities within a month. While two of Qatar's 14 LNG trains and one of its two gas-to-liquids (GTL) facilities were damaged in strikes, reducing the country's LNG export capacity by 17%. Repairs will take years, the group's CEO said in March. However, production at other facilities that have been idle due to the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran conflict could be swiftly restored. In Russia, oil producer Tatneft has limited its sales of petrol and diesel at all of its stations nationwide. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month (Aug/Sep) and 6-month (Aug/Feb) Brent futures spreads are at $0.48/bbl and $3.00/bbl, respectively.

This afternoon in Dated we continued to trade lower with strong selling in the paper window despite the physical window coming in better bid. We saw 22-26 Jun CFD hit down to $0.70/bbl by a US major, 29-3 Jul CFD hit down to $0.60/bbl and 6-10 Jul CFD hit down to $0.49/bbl by Geneva-based trade house. We also saw selling of 22-26 Jun 1w down to $0.22/bbl by a major. Jul DFL traded down to $0.44/bbl and Aug DFL down to $0.55/bbl post window. However we saw a major bidding Midland in the window, pushing up the implied physical diff to around 80c.

This afternoon in Brent/Dubai we continued to rally, with consistent selling of Dubai spreads. Dubai spreads moved into steeper contango, with the Jul/Aug moving down from -$0.60/bbl to -$1.30/bbl. There was some refiner buying on Jul/Sep around -$0.95/bbl, and tradehouse buying of Jul/Aug around -$1.10/bbl. We saw continued buying of Aug EFS and Aug Brent futures vs Jul Dubai by producer. The July Brent/Dubai rallied from $6.80/bbl to highs of $7.70/bbl before easing off to $7.18/bbl. There was trade buying of Jul/Aug box from $1.32/bbl to $1.90/bbl. There was also trade buying of Q4/Q1 Brent/Dubai box at $0.90/bbl.

VLSFO strengthened this afternoon. Both Eastern and European structure rose with buying seen from trade houses and a major. This, in combination with weaker Brent spreads and continued bank buying on the 1H'27 Sing 0.5 crack up to $7.70/bbl, pushed front crack as high as $10.75/bbl in Sing and $4.45/bbl in Europe. 0.5 E/W remained offered, trading down to $39.50/mt in Jul, which further supported European cracks.

Illiquid afternoon in HSFO. Chinese arbers had axed buying on Nov and Dec 380 putting spreads under pressure. We continue to see scale back buying on Sep/Oct at $4.50/mt from trade shops and physical players. European structure strengthened a touch with Jul/Aug trading back up from $2.50/mt to $3.25/mt, however, front cracks came under pressure in the window selling down 30c to -$8.70/bbl where we saw a European trade house take down the selling.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil had mixed interest with selling in Aug/Sep and buying more deferred such as Nov/Dec. E/W firmed slightly in Jul, finding support with EFS buying pushing the E/W up from -$42/mt to -$38.75/mt. Regrade saw continued buying, with $0/bbl getting lifted in Jul then bid on at $0.15/bbl.

Prompt ICE gasoil steadily sold off, spiking briefly to $12.75 in Jul/Aug pre-window then coming off again. Aug cracks came off early afternoon to $38.50/bbl then rallied to reach $39.60/bbl. European jet was again supported, trading up to $68.50/mt. Heating oil spreads rallied pre window while the M1 HOGO swap gradually sold off to 31.4c/gal.

This afternoon in naphtha, mixed interest in MOC with the July naphtha crack strengthening this afternoon, trading up to -$7.20/bbl end of window with crack remaining better bid post window. The Cal'27 crack finds buying at -$9.30/bbl with buyside interest in the Q4'26 at -$8.15/bbl post-window, up from -$8.40/bbl where Q4 was trading earlier today. Buyside interest in Sep/Oct naphtha at $6.25/mt from a trade house, with the Q1/Q2'27 crack roll trading up from $0.85/bbl this morning to $0.95/bbl this afternoon. E/W trading $32.50/mt end of window with the E/W box strengthening from this morning's trading level of -$0.50/mt to flat.

This afternoon in NGLs, internationals were relatively quiet, but we saw selling of Sep/Oct FEI at flat, and Jul/Aug CP trading at $21/mt. LST/FEI interest in Jul and Cal'27, trading at -$218/mt and -$164/mt respectively across the afternoon, with Jul softening slightly into window to settle at -$223/mt. LST spread buying in Q3/Q4'26 at -1.375c/gal, down from yesterday’s trading level of -2.375c/gal. Jul26/Jan27 LST was also lifted at -2.75c/gal, where it settled post window. In butane, opened slightly weaker, with Jul/Aug trading at -0.375c/gal, and Sep/Dec at -0.875c/gal. C4/C3 buying out of July at 20c/gal where it settled end window.