Brent Climbs As Drones Hit Sheskharis Terminal

In the news, crude exports from Russia’s Sheskharis terminal at Novorossiysk were suspended following a drone attack, adding pressure to one of Russia’s key export outlets. The terminal handles around 700kb/d of crude and was forced to halt loadings after storage tanks reached capacity, with at least one tanker leaving the port without loading. The disruption comes after strong recent export flows, with Novorossiysk loadings reaching nearly 1mb/d in July and around 800kb/d in June. Related, Turkey has reduced purchases from Russian ports in July and is expected to cut them further in August, amid such disruptions in the Black Sea. Russian port deliveries to Turkey fell to around 900kt in July from 1.2Mmt in June, with Black Sea volumes halving to just over 300kt. August flows are currently expected at around 200kt, all of which is Kazakh KEBCO, with no CPC Blend or Urals loadings to Turkey currently planned. In India, dependence on Russian crude has reached a record in July, with Russian barrels accounting for 50.8% of imports, or 2.47mb/d, according to Reuters. Imports were up 62% y/y, although slightly below June’s record 2.6mb/d. However, future flows face greater uncertainty after the US Senate has passed legislation proposing 100% tariffs on buyers of Russian oil, although the measure still requires House approval. Russia’s share of Indian crude imports has averaged 43.3% since April, up from around 37% a year earlier. Finally, as of the time of writing, the front-month (Oct/Nov) and 6-month (Oct/Apr’27) Brent futures spreads are at $1.93/bbl and $8.78/bbl, respectively.

This afternoon in Dated we saw initial selling in the front with 24-28 DBL getting hit down to $2.25/bbl. However then saw some Sep/Oct buying come in on both the DFL roll and DTD roll with the DTD roll lifted up to $2.68/bbl. 7-11 Sep 1-week was sold at $0.52/bbl in good size and saw a seller of Cal Sep vs 18-24 Sep get lifted $0.49/bbl with Sep/Oct going bid. Pre window 17-21 3-week traded low at $2.15/bbl. In the paper window we saw a major selling 24-28 Aug CFD at $2.00/bbl and 1-4 Sep CFD up to $3.60/bbl. Cal Sep vs 28-2 was also sold at $1.34/bbl and 29-30 Sep vs 6-7 Oct at $0.65/bbl. In the physical window we saw a refiner offering a Forties cargo and a major offering an Ekofisk cargo, pushing down the implied diff a few cents.

This afternoon in Brent/Dubai we traded rangebound, with buying of Oct, Nov and Dec EFS, and selling of Oct and Q4 Brent/Dubai. The Sep Brent/Dubai therefore traded back and forth between $5/bbl to $5.30/bbl. The Q4 continued to be well offered, from $5.50/bbl up to $5.80/bbl. The Dubai spreads traded in a tight range, between $2.60/bbl to $2.80/bbl, largely moving with Dubai spreads. The boxes did not trade OTC but slid into deeper backwardation, the Oct/Nov box now also below $0/bbl for the first time. There was also selling of Q1 and Q3 Brent/Dubai.

In VLSFO, Sep/Oct Sing was not as well bid as this morning, it traded between $38.75/mt and $39.25/mt this afternoon. Sep crack traded down from its high of $20.00/bbl to $19.60/bbl pre window before encountering real buying and trading back up to $19.80/bbl during the window. Sep Euro 0.5 crack was rangebound this afternoon trading between $7.20/bbl and $7.40/bbl, it closed out the window at $7.30/bbl. Sep/Oct Euro traded at the same level it closed out the morning; $24.00/mt. 0.5 e/w encountered some real selling down to $78.50/mt during the window.

High sulphur complex’ strength continued into the afternoon as both barge and 380 spreads were bid, cracks were in turn bid on the back of this. Sep/Oct 380 traded up from $34.00/mt to $35.00/mt, it then bounced a further dollar to $36.00/mt post window. Sep 380 crack considerably higher gaining 85c and closing at -$0.50/bbl after the window. Barge crack was also much stronger this afternoon, trading up to $9.25/bbl during the window and then gaining a further 25c to -$9.00/bbl post window. Sep/Oct barges was also bid gaining 2 dollars and closing at $17.00/mt.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads were mixed, with Sep/Oct selling down to lows of $6.20/bbl before strengthening back to $6.30/bbl last. Front E/W remained rangebound between -$68/mt and -$67.25/mt, while Q4 was lifted up to -$59/mt. Regrade moved higher in the back, with Dec trading up to $3.75/bbl, while the front remained bid at -$2.25/bbl.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads rallied into the window, with Sep/Dec trading from $159/mt up to $163/mt, and the Oct crack firmed to $71.90/bbl. European jet diffs were steady, with Sep trading at $68/mt. Both heating oil spreads and HOGOs firmed, with the Sep HOGO swap up to 29.1c/gal.

This afternoon in gasoline RBBRs were strong, but arbs were offered around 7.90c/gal in Sep and offered down to 20.40c/gal in Q4 by tradehouses. RBBR strength pushed up Sep EBOB cracks from $31.40/bbl to $32.30/bbl, with Q4 cracks scaleback offered up to $19/bbl. Spreads firmed as well, with Sep/Oct trading up from $88/mt to $89.50/mt. E/W saw mixed interest and remained balanced around -$11.60/bbl, with 92 cracks trading up to highs of $20.50/bbl.

This afternoon in naphtha continued firm after this morning’s strength, with real buying from majors supporting cracks into the window. Sep NWE cracks held around -$4.40/bbl before rallying to -$4.05/bbl through the window, while prompt spreads stayed bid, with Sep/Oct moving from $24/mt to $26/mt. E/W was also firmer, with Sep up from $37.25/mt this morning to around $37.50/mt post-window and Oct moving to $39.50/mt. MOPJ remained illiquid on cracks but spreads were well bid, with Sep/Oct lifting from around $22/mt to $23/mt post-window.

This afternoon in NGLs, Oct/Dec FEI was lifted at $13/mt, and Dec/Dec was bought at $91/mt, down $0.50 from last night’s closing level. There was deferred buy side interest in CAL 27 LST/FEI and FEI/MOPJ, trading at -$186/mt and -$83.50/mt, respectively. Similar buying in Q4 as well for both products at -$267/mt and -$74/mt. The FEI/MOPJ buying also existed in the front, with Sep trading at -$83/mt, down from the morning level of -$78/mt, and Oct was lifted at -$82/mt. Deferred LST spread buying, with Q4'26/ Q1'27 trading at -0.25c/gal, and Q1/2'27 at 4c/gal. Sep/Q4 LST was also getting lifted at -1.375c/gal for good size on the afternoon. In butane, some spread buying out of Nov/Dec C4 ENT at 0.625c/gal, and the Sep/Oct C4ENT/MOPJ was lifted at -$93/mt.