Brent continues to see resistance above $105/bbl

In the news, 72% of US Gulf oil production has been shut in ahead of Hurricane Isaias, which has reportedly strengthened to a category three major hurricane. Landfall is expected later today. In other news, Saudi Aramco has reportedly told European oil refiners that it will provide them with the crude oil they asked for in November, following a resumption of the East-West pipeline, as per a Bloomberg report. US President Donald Trump has teased a "big announcement" on diesel today, as retail prices in the US average $6.2785/gal, according to AAA. Finally, at the time of writing, the Dec/Jan'27 and Dec/Jun'27 Brent futures spreads stood at $3.30/bbl and $12.92/bbl, respectively.

Volatile Afternoon in Dated Brent. The physical remained quiet, whilst we saw buying of CFDs in the window from Equinor and Trafigura, with 19-23/10 CFD and 26-30/10 CFD traded at $15.65 and $8.55/bbl respectively at the close. Balmo-ND DFl traded up to $15.50/bbl pre-window - implied higher on CFDs, before coming back off to print smalls at $15.00/bbl post-window. Better roll selling emerged pre-window, with 26-30/10 v Cal Nov sold down to $6.15/bbl, whilst Nov was in free fall, slipping from $5.85/bbl to $5.40/bbl, with tradehouses on the offer.

This afternoon in Brent/Dubai we traded in a tight range, between -$2.50/bbl and -$2.40/bbl. There was Chinese selling of Mar'27 ICE vs Jan'27 Dub and Feb'27 ICE vs Dec'26 Dub. The screen was well bid, which meant we traded in a tight range. There were small volumes in selling of Q3'27 and Q4'27 Brent/Dubai at -$1.87/bbl and -$0.69/bbl. The Dubai spreads traded in line with Brent spreads, range-bound between $3.40/bbl and $3.70/bbl.

Sing 0.5 continued to trade at similar levels to this morning, although liquidity dried up; Nov/Dec'26 traded at $28.25/mt until after the window when it was bid up on screen to $29.00/mt, Dec/Jan'27 traded up 75c just before the window to $27.50/mt. Nov'26 Sing crack traded between $23.40/bbl and $23.60/bbl for the majority of the afternoon; some buying came in post-window, and it was bid up to $23.80/bbl. Dec'26 Sing crack traded at $21.90/bbl in very low volume. Euro 0.5 spreads lacked liquidity once again; Nov/Dec'26 traded between $15.50/mt and $16.00/mt with no real axe; the rest of the spreads did not really trade. Nov'26 Euro crack saw better volume and was choppy, trading down from $0.50/bbl to -$0.50/bbl in the early afternoon; during the window it shed another 25c to -$0.75/bbl, before bouncing back up to -$0.30/bbl post window.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads saw some selling in Dec/Jan'27, trading at $3.30/bbl, while front E/W also saw sell-side interest, trading from -$106.00/mt down to lows of -$112.00/mt and now at -$109.00/mt. Regrade saw buying in the deferred, with Q3'27 trading up at $1.75/bbl.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads continued stronger into the window, with Nov/Dec'26 from $40.00/mt up to highs of $45.00/mt, now at $43.00/mt, while Dec'26 cracks firmed to $77.70/bbl. European jet diffs rallied across the curve, with Nov'26 up to $161.00/mt and 2H 27 trading at $120.00/mt.

Gasoline was weaker this afternoon, led lower by the arb and RBBRs, while the East held up better. Nov'26 arbs were offered from 4.70c/gal to 2.30c/gal at the end of the window, most of it at the US open as RBBRs weakened, despite real buying from 4.30c/gal to 2.50c/gal on the way down; Q1'27 arbs lagged at 28.04c/gal and Nov/Dec'26 eased to -11.68c/gal. Dec'26 RBBRs traded from $28.85/bbl to $27.65/bbl and Jan'27 from $28.21/bbl to $26.96/bbl at the end of the window, with Nov'26 RBOB crack swaps sold at $31.10/bbl at the end of the window. In EBOB, Nov'26 cracks were little changed, trading at $30.35/bbl at the end of the window after selling at $30.10/bbl pre-window, while Dec'26 cracks were sold at $24.00/bbl and Q1'27 held at $22.18/bbl. The Nov/Dec'26 crack roll eased to $6.22/bbl, and Nov/Dec'26 spreads bounced off $74.00/mt to $75.50/mt, where they met selling. Nov'26 gasnap eased to $220.08/mt, with Cal sold at $197.00/mt. The East was more resilient: Nov'26 92 cracks traded down to $24.15/bbl early afternoon before firming to $24.60/bbl at the end of the window, Nov/Dec'26 92 firmed to $7.30/bbl, and Nov'26 92 swaps saw real buying from $124.65/bbl to $125.20/bbl, while Nov'26 E/W held at -$5.75/bbl.

This afternoon, naphtha was strongly bid, with MOC better bid and firmer Brent spreads supporting the complex. NWE naphtha strengthened from the morning, with Nov'26 cracks moving from -$3.30/bbl to -$2.85/bbl post-window after reaching -$2.70/bbl; Q1'27 ended at -$5.75/bbl from -$5.60/bbl earlier, and the Q1/Q2'27 roll at $2.35/bbl. Spreads were also firmer, with Nov/Dec'26 at $37.00/mt after trading up to $38.00/mt and Dec/Jan'27 at $22.50/mt. E/W saw the largest move, with Nov'26 up from $79.00/mt–$80.00/mt this morning to $86.00/mt post-window, while the Nov/Jan'27 box was $16.50/mt, Q1'27 up to $62.00/mt, and Cal 27’ at $44.50/mt. MOPJ remained thin on cracks, with Q2'27 at -$2.90/bbl, while spreads stayed well bid, with Nov/Dec'26 at $41.00/mt and Dec/Jan'27 at $34.50/mt.

This afternoon in NGLs, FEI was up, with Nov/Dec'26 FEI trading up at $45.00/mt versus $44.00/mt pre-window. Dec/Dec'26 FEI was much stronger, breaking through yesterday’s levels, trading at $235.00/mt. FEIMOPJs were slightly weaker this afternoon, with Nov'26 FEI/MOPJ printing around -$33.00/mt down from -$26.00/mt pre-window against a stronger crude. The Arb was firm this afternoon, trading at -$398.00/mt in Nov'26 versus -$400.00/mt this morning, and the Q1'27 LST/FEI traded at -$305.00/mt before trading at -$308.00/mt for the rest of the window and closing at -$312.00/mt. LST was strong today, with flat price breaking $1/gal this afternoon. Nov/Dec'26 LST traded up initially, reaching 1.75c/gal before trading back to 1.625c/gal and closing at 1.50c/gal. Q1/Q2'27 LST also traded higher through the afternoon from 8.625c/gal up to highs of 8.875c/gal.

The Nov'26 Pronap was weaker this afternoon, with Nov'26 Pronap trading at -$115.00/mt in the early afternoon before falling to -$119.00/mt to close. Butane was thin but continued to rip this afternoon, with Nov'26 Butane trading at highs of $1.545/gal, opening at $1.5375 this afternoon. Nov/Dec'26 Butane traded at 4.00c/gal to open before stepping up to 4.125c/gal. This is up from 3.50c/gal yesterday.