Donna Dong
Research Analyst, Flux
Brent Declines to $67.42/bbl
Brent dips; US-Iran talks progress; Ukraine hits Russian sites; EU sees no supply risk; Dangote expands refinery.
The Apr’26 Brent futures contract declined this afternoon, from $68.79/bbl at 13:00 GMT to $67.42/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing).
In geopolitical news, US-Iran have concluded second round talks in Geneva today, with Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi saying that the nations have reached an understanding on "guiding principles," but work still needed to be done. While the US has not commented yet, further meetings are expected; no dates have been confirmed. In Ukraine, the nation's SBU domestic security service has reported that its drones have struck the Taman oil terminal in Russia's Krasnodar region, as well as a chemicals plant near the Ural Mountains, overnight. The details and extent of the damage from the strikes are not yet clear. Elsewhere, French authorities have allowed the seized oil tanker GRINCH to depart from its waters, after the vessel's owner paid a “several million euro” penalty, according to French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot. The vessel was seized in the Mediterranean last month before it was diverted to anchor off the coast of Marseille due to suspicion that it was part of the Russian shadow fleet, as it sailed under a Comoros flag, for which it was unable to provide justification to authorities. In other news, a European Commission spokesperson has stated there is no immediate threat to oil supply security in Hungary or Slovakia after Russian oil flow interruptions via Ukraine, since both countries hold substantial emergency reserves. Slovakia's government has also reaffirmed that its domestic fuel supply is not yet under threat, following Hungary’s accusation of Ukraine shutting off power to the Druzhba portion of the pipeline that carries Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia. In Nigeria, Dangote Group has signed a $400mn equipment deal with China's Xuzhou Construction Machinery Group to accelerate the expansion of its oil refinery, aiming for a planned capacity of 1.4mb/d. The company has previously stated that they aim for this expansion to be completed by 2028. The additional equipment is anticipated to aid projects in progress within refining, petrochemicals, agriculture, and related sectors infrastructure. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month (Apr/May’26) and 6-month (Apr/Oct’26) Brent futures spreads are at $0.60/bbl and $2.43/bbl, respectively.
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