Brent Dips Amid Increased Tanker Traffic in Persian Gulf

In the news, Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva, Ali Bahreini, has said that US President Trump’s remarks on Truth Social have put the latest round of talks in Switzerland in serious jeopardy. Trump posted that “Iran must immediately stop their highly paid PROXIES in Lebanon from causing trouble” and that “if they don’t, we’ll hit Iran very hard again, just like we did last week, only harder.” Meanwhile, two stranded supertankers have passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Seven empty Qatar-linked LNG tankers have entered the area in recent weeks, indicating a potential resumption of Persian Gulf shipping. Iranian-linked tankers also continued transiting through the crucial waterway, with increased traffic observed on Monday (22 Jun) as US-Iran negotiations advanced. Elsewhere, Russia is reportedly exploring the possibility of importing fuel and providing subsidies to regulate domestic prices, aiming to address supply disruptions of gasoline and diesel as Ukraine continues to strike its oil refineries. Many regions in Russia have experienced fuel sales restrictions, increased oil product prices, and long queues at gas stations due to shortages. In the US, gasoline prices have fallen for a sixth consecutive week, dropping 15% since peaking in May. The national average price of gasoline dropped 14.1c/gal over the past week to $3.85/gal on 22 Jun, according to GasBuddy. Finally, the front-month (Aug/Sep) and 6-month (Aug/Feb) Brent futures spreads are at $0.31/bbl and $2.70/bbl, respectively.

Quiet morning again in Dated. We saw a strong Aug Dated vs Aug Brent futures hedge seller, selling 2k down to -$0.59/bbl and some selling of Jul DFL down to -$0.16/bbl, however, we also saw Sing buying Jul Dated/Dubai. Saw buy side interest in prompt rolls with 29-3 Jul vs Cal Jul trading -$0.40/bbl, and buy side interest out of Bal week 1w, 6-10 Jul 1w and 6-10 Jul vs Cal Jul. Further down the curve we saw a bank buying back end Cal'27 this morning, buying Q4'27 DFL and Nov'27 DFL up to $0.17/bbl.

This morning Brent/Dubai was very quiet again as we traded rangebound. The July Brent/Dubai initially down from $7.50/bbl to $7.20/bbl, before bouncing higher after the window. We saw paper on both the bid and offer side in the Jul/Aug, Aug/Sep and Sep/Oct boxes, trade house on the offer side. We traded largely rangebound in the boxes and spreads, the spreads largely unchanged on the day. The Jul/Aug traded between -$1/bbl to -$0.90/bbl. There was fund buying of Cal'27, trading around $1.60/bbl.

In VLSFO, a weaker start to the morning on Sing 0.5 in particular. The Sing crack was offered down to $12.75/bbl from last night's highs of $13.60/bbl. Most of the action was on screen with very little working OTC. Spreads, particularly Jul/Aug sold off due to the crack, with the spread getting as low at $21.00/mt. In the window we saw some strength with the crack buying back up to $13.35/bbl post window and Jul/Aug up to $21.50/mt. Euro 0.5 was very illiquid this morning. Euro spreads were implied lower from Sing 0.5, however, there was a buyer on Jul/Aug Euro which saw it close the morning around $22.75/mt. The Euro crack followed a similar pattern with some E/W weakness supported the crack somewhat. The Jul Euro crack traded around $6.35/bbl.

In HSFO, 380 came under pressure early this morning with spread selling off the bat on spreads in 2026. Jul/Aug 380 sold down to as low as -$0.50/mt heading into the window. The crack also struggled this morning with Jul getting as low as -$8.80/bbl from around -$8.25/bbl last night. Barge crack came off as a consequence of 380, trading down to -$9.00/bbl in July. Jul/Aug Barges followed a similar trend although liquidity was low, closing the morning implied around $1.00/mt.

This morning in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads were mixed with Jul/Aug trading for size at $1.63/bbl through most of the morning. E/W was sellside in Jul and Sep with buying in the Jul EFS getting sold into. Front E/W priced down from -$33/mt to -$34.25/mt end window. Regrade was better offered by market makers due to combo selling in Q3 and Q4. Kero spreads were sellside by real, with Jul/Aug stepping down to trade at $0.85/bbl.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads gradually sold off over the morning from $14/mt to $12/mt in Jul/Aug. Aug cracks traded down to $37.60/bbl coming into the window before rallying to $37.90/bbl and then coming off again. European jet diffs were thin with Mar'27 trading at $78.50/mt, slightly higher than where we’ve seen it. Heating oil spreads weakened while the M1 HOGO swap was volatile but traded up from 30.55c/gal to 30.9c/gal.

This morning in gasoline, Sing 92 flat price traded end window at $97/bbl with MOC balanced. The East was weaker, with July cracks coming off from $20.55/bbl to $19.85/bbl, and Q4 was offered down to $9.55/bbl. Spreads softened as well as Jul/Aug got sold down from $4.70/bbl to $4.50/bbl and E/W fell from -$8.50/bbl to -$8.95/bbl. EBOB cracks were better supported as they traded around $28.75/bbl in July and Jul/Aug saw mixed interest at $28/mt.

This morning in naphtha, MOC better offered with trade sell side of July and Aug MOC at -5c. Buyer of July E/W this morning, seeing E/W getting lifted from $31/mt to $32/mt in July. MOPJ spreads generally better offered this morning with prompt fly also seeing scale back selling, seeing July/Aug/Sep fly trading at $1/mt. Prompt naphtha crack trades down from -$5.80/bbl to -$6/bbl end of window with trade buy side of the Cal'27 at -$9/bbl.

This morning in NGLs, Chinese were early FEI flat price sellers out of Aug and Sep at $558/mt and $559/mt, respectively. Prompt CP continued to be strong following yesterday’s trend with Jul/Aug trading up to $83/mt, and the Jul FEI/CP was printing at -$20/mt post window due to July CP flat price trading at $588/mt compared to yesterday’s levels of $575/mt. Aug FEI/CP was also weaker today, trading at $58/mt, compared to yesterday’s trading level of $67/mt, as a result, Aug CP flat price buying stepping up from $500/mt to $505/mt across the morning. Also saw buying of the Q4 FEI/CP at $56/mt. Jul LST/FEI had real selling at the -$194/mt, $1 stronger than the closing level of yesterday evening. FEI spreads were relatively firm today, seeing Jul/Aug trade at $7/mt. In FEI/MOPJ, Q4 traded at -$63/mt before being bid again at -$65/mt. End window on screen, Jul FEI flat price was lifted at $570/mt.