Mita Chaturvedi
Research Associate, Flux
Brent Drops to Lowest Since March on Easing Geopolitical Risk
However, shippers have reported that confidence in resuming transit via the Strait of Hormuz may take much longer to rebuild.....
Published: June 15, 2026
Written by:
Mita Chaturvedi
The M1 Brent Futures contract was fairly rangebound between $82.80/bbl and $83.40/bbl into the afternoon, before easing to $82.40/bbl at 15:33 BST.
Brent Futures Flat Price
Uncertainty looms over the futures complex ahead of the US and Iran signing a memorandum of understanding in Switzerland on Friday. However, shippers in Asia and Europe have reported that confidence in resuming transit via the Strait of Hormuz may take much longer to rebuild. According to a Reuters report based on vessel-tracking data, there were no significant tanker crossings in the region on 15 Jun, aside from one LNG carrier. However, ships have been reportedly sailing "dark" and moving barrels along Oman's coast for weeks. US energy shares dropped on 15 Jun following the agreement to sign the peace deal, with ExxonMobil down 3.75% d/d and BP down 3.8% d/d. In other news, Russia is allowing some of its oil refineries to produce fuel that meets lower environmental standards for its domestic market, according to Kommersant, amid continued strain on Russian energy due to Ukrainian attacks. Finally, the Aug/Sep’26 and Aug/Feb’27 Brent futures spreads are at $0.92/bbl and $5.05/bbl, respectively.
Crude
This afternoon in Brent/Dubai we traded slightly higher, with the Jul trading up from $5.25/bbl to $5.50/bbl. We saw buying of Aug Brent futures vs Jul Dubai, selling of Jul and Aug Brent/Dubai by tradehouse towards the highs of the range. There was large selling of Q4 Brent/Dubai by products and selling of Q4 Dated/Dubai. The Jul/Aug spread traded rangebound between $0/bbl and $0.15/bbl, with the Jul/Aug box trading up from $0.80/bbl to $0.95/bbl. There was trade and bank buying of Aug/Sep/Oct and Oct/Nov/Dec Dubai fly, around -$0.07/bbl and $0/bbl, respectively.
Prices are delayed and should be treated as indicative only. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
Fuel Oil
The weakness we saw in VLSFO this morning continued into the afternoon. Jul Sing crack continued to sell off, down to $10.65/bbl by EOD from $11.50/bbl. The Sing spread followed suit with Jul/Aug selling down to $13.25/mt. The Euro crack came under pressure in the window trading down to $3.05/bbl before recovering post window up to $3.45/bbl. Jul/Aug Euro received some support but traded down to $15.00/mt amid weakness in the complex.
In HSFO, the 380 complex came under pressure this afternoon. The 380 E/W traded down to $16.25/mt off the back of 380 crack selling, which saw Jul 380 crack sell down to -$5.95/bbl. 380 spreads continued to weaken off the back of front selling, trading down $4.50/mt. The barge crack also saw selling, particularly post window, with Jul trading down to -$8.50. Jul/Aug barges traded down, consequently, closing the day at $3.75/mt.
Prices are delayed and should be treated as indicative only. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
Distillates
This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil was quiet with mixed interest on spreads down the curve and Jul/Aug a touch more buyside with strength in the front. E/W priced up with EFS buying by trade in Jul, causing E/W buyers to step up from -$35.25/mt to -$34.50/mt. Q3 was mixed but trading for decent size at -$33.50/mt over the course of the afternoon. Regrade was offered but found a floor in the front at -$0.90/bbl where we found some buying that wasn’t being sold into.
Prompt ICE gasoil spreads traded rangebound in Jul/Aug, between $17.75/mt and $19/mt. Aug cracks also saw similar flow, peaking at $42/bbl and reaching lows of $41/bbl. European jet diffs bounced slightly, trading back up to $70/bbl in Jul. Heating oil spreads traded rangebound while the M1 HOGO swap was volatile and dropped from 31c/gal back to 29.90c/gal.
Prices are delayed and should be treated as indicative only. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
Gasoline
This afternoon, in gasoline, EBOB flat price traded at the end window at $902.50/mt, with MOC better bid. RBBRs rallied this afternoon, pushing July arbs up from 30.80c/gal to 32.25c/gal. EBOB cracks saw scaleback selling as they rallied from $25.45/bbl to $26.25/bbl, with Q4 trading at $12.30/bbl. Spreads rallied on stronger Brent and RBBRs, with Jul/Aug firming from $24/mt to $25.75/mt. The gasoline E/W was better bid at -$7.40/bbl in Jul'26 but there was scaleback 92 crack selling up to 18.75/bbl. Jul/Aug rallied from $3.95/bbl to $4.10/bbl.
Prices are delayed and should be treated as indicative only. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
Naphtha
This afternoon in naphtha, mixed interest in MOC with the July naphtha crack trading relatively rangebound during the window between -$8.90/bbl and -$9.05/bbl. Cal'27 naphtha crack trades up -$9.55/bbl, from this morning’s trading level of -$9.75/bbl. E/W boxes better offered, with trade sell side of Nov/Dec E/W box with buying stepping up in the Nov/Dec/Jan MOPJ fly.
Prices are delayed and should be treated as indicative only. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
NGLs
This afternoon in NGLs, internationals were relatively quiet, but we had some FEI spread interest with Aug/Sep trading at $7/mt, and Q4 FEI/MOPJ buying at -$54/mt, down slightly from the morning’s trading level. There was LST/FEI interest in the prompt and deferred, with Aug arb getting bought at -$218/mt, and Q4'26 was lifted at -$207/mt, up from -$247/mt and -$214/mt, respectively from last week’s close. LST spreads were trading at 0.5c/gal in Q4'26/Q1'27, where it settled post window, and Aug/Dec was lifted at -2c/gal, down 0.375c/gal from Friday’s trading level. In butane there was little action across the afternoon, but had some Q4'26 C4 ENT selling at 95c/gal.
Prices are delayed and should be treated as indicative only. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
Written by
Related News
Peace In Our Time?
Gasoline cracks weakened after US-Iran peace news, with bearish sentiment growing across prompt gasoline markets.
14 page report
Naphtha catches a break
The overall market split in flows in the NWE crack vs Onyx highlights a still-short market, suggesting further room for profit-taking....
17 page report
Brent shorts rise for tenth straight week
Money managers removed 24.8mb (-6.8%) from their longs and added 4mb (+3.5%) to their shorts in Brent futures....
13 page report
Brent Gaps Down and Continues Sliding on US-Iran Peace Agreement
Oil weakens as US-Iran deal nears and Hormuz reopening looms, though shipping and security risks remain.