Brent firms alongside EIA reported crude draw

In the news, the EIA reported a 4.45 mb decline in US crude oil inventories to 424.5 mb in the week ending 28th August. Gasoline stocks also declined w/w by 1.17 mb to 205.7 mb, while distillate inventories rose by a muted 0.8 mb, although they remain low at 104.2 mb. In other news, Chevron is reportedly planning to invest over $7 billion in its Venezuelan ventures to double its oil production in the nation ​to about 600kb/d over the next five years. China's Sinopec Corp. is extending its buying of Russian crude, according to Reuters, reportedly squeezing supplies for China's smaller independent refiners amid declining Iranian shipments. The refinery has agreed to buy between 10 and 15 shipments of ESPO, or about 235-353kb/d, with its total October purchases - including Sokol and Urals - estimated to sit above 20 shipments. In the US, DOE Secretary Chris Wright has authorised PJM Interconnection, the country's largest electric grid, to direct backup generation resources ​to operate as a last resort before declaring a level 3 energy emergency alert, increasing the risk of power outages across the nation amid a heat wave. Finally, the Nov/Dec'26 and Nov/May'26 Brent futures spread stands at $3.64/bbl and $14.19/bbl, respectively.

This afternoon in Dated Brent, we saw strong Balmo buying with multiple cargo bids in the window. Pre-window, we saw buying of $7.00/bbl-11 Sep'26 2w at $0.35/bbl and a trade buyer of $14.00/bbl-18 Sep'26 1w at $0.42/bbl. We also saw buying of back-end Sep'26 into Oct'26, with buying of $21.00/bbl-25 Sep/Cal Oct'26 trading at $2.95/bbl and $2.00/bbl-8 Oct/Cal Oct'26 trading at $1.25/bbl in size. We saw strong buying in the window with multiple Midland cargo bids coming out, pushing the implied physical diff up to around -30c. In the paper window, we saw a US major buying 21-25 Sep'26 CFD at $3.65/bbl.

This afternoon continued to be quiet in Brent/Dubai as we traded range-bound in the Oct'26 Brent/Dubai, initially lower on Chinese selling of Oct'26 Dated Dubai, but then higher in the afternoon on major US tender hedging. The Oct'26 Brent/Dubai traded between $2.20/bbl and $2.60/bbl, finishing in the middle of this range. The Dubai spreads largely tracked Brent spreads, reversing most of their morning's move lower, up from around $4.30/bbl to $4.60/bbl. Boxes were also very quiet, with some small selling of Oct/Dec'26 boxes. The Balmo spread continued to be well offered by banks around $9.50/bbl, despite pricing being much stronger.

In VLSFO, Sing 0.5 spreads traded at similar levels to this morning and did not trade in large volume; Oct/Nov'26 traded up to $37.00/mt. Oct'26 Sing crack briefly traded up to $20.00/bbl in the early afternoon and then sold back down to $19.70/bbl during the window. Euro 0.5 spreads were stable this afternoon, trading between $18.00/mt and $18.50/mt; there was not massive volume traded on these spreads either. Sep'26 Euro crack sold down from $5.95/bbl to $5.60/bbl during the window.

In HSFO, Chinese arbers were initially buyers but then turned sellers of 380 flat price this afternoon, particularly in Dec'26. 380 spreads were fairly muted this afternoon with Oct/Nov'26 trading between $14.50/mt and $15.25/mt while the Oct'26 crack traded down from $5.80/bbl to $6.00/bbl during the window. Barge spreads were bid in the window, with Oct/Nov'26 trading up from $12.75/mt to $13.75/mt; Oct'26 crack traded down from -$11.70/bbl to -$11.25/bbl this afternoon.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads saw scale back selling, with Dec/Jan'27 trading from $4.40/bbl up to $4.60/bbl, while front E/W rallied to highs of -$98.00/mt before selling off into the window back to -$106.00/mt last. Kero spreads were mixed overall, with selling in Jan/Mar'27, while Oct/Nov'26 traded up from $3.85/bbl to $4.00/bbl.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads sold off early before rallying, Sep/Dec'26 trading to lows of $193.00/mt before rallying to $215.00/mt last, while Nov'26 cracks remained at $77.30/bbl. European jet diffs remained steady, with Oct'26 at $86.00/mt and Q4'26 trading at $99.00/mt.

This afternoon in gasoline, interest in MOC mixed with Oct'26 EBOB crack trading $31.10/bbl end of window, with Oct/Nov'26 seeing some selling at $80.00/mt. Selling in Cal 27 gasnap this afternoon at $181.00/mt, with EBOB Cal 27 crack seeing buying at $19.60/bbl at the beginning of the window, with selling at $19.50/bbl into the end of the window. 92 spreads initially still found some buying, but then interest flips to better offered with Sep/Oct'26 92 weakening from highs of $7.15/bbl to $6.85/bbl, with Dec/Jan'27 coming off from $3.00/bbl to $2.85/bbl.

This morning in naphtha was mixed, with MOC initially better bid on MOPJ flat-price buying pre-window before the tone softened into the window as crude came lower, front spreads were offered and cracks weakened. MOPJ cracks came off, with Oct'26 moving from around $2.15/bbl to $2.00/bbl, while Q1'27 was around -$0.50/bbl and Q2'27 around -$3.40/bbl; spreads were choppy but generally softer, with full-mo Sep/Oct'26 around $24.00/mt, Oct/Nov'26 easing from $30.50/mt to $29.00/mt before recovering to $30.00/mt, and Nov/Dec'26 from $29.00/mt to $28.25/mt amid scale-back selling. E/W was mixed, with backend better bid but the front offered, with Oct'26 a touch lower at $52.00/mt, Q4'26 around $51.00/mt, Q1'27 around $40.00/mt and Cal 27 around $30.50/mt. NWE naphtha was softer on cracks and spreads, with Oct'26 cracks moving from around -$3.80/bbl to -$3.95/bbl, while Q1'27 was around -$5.05/bbl, Cal 27 around -$7.05/bbl; spreads were offered too, with Oct/Nov'26 around $29.00/mt, Nov/Dec'26 at $27.00/mt, Dec/Jan'27 at $15.50/mt and Jan/Feb'27 at $16.50/mt.

This afternoon in NGLs, Oct/Nov'26 FEI traded up to $31.50/mt before softening to $30.00/mt end window, and Nov/Dec'26 was trading back at $26.50/mt where it had originally opened the day. Deferred spread interest returned in FEI, and Oct/Dec'26 27 traded again at -$5.50/mt, and Feb/Mar'27 27 was lifted at $29.50/mt. Had cross arb buying, with Bal Sep/Nov'26 LST/CP trading at -$204.00/mt, and the Nov'26 was sold at -$207.00/mt. Oct'26 LST/FEI began the afternoon trading at -$371.00/mt, before strengthening to close at -$367.00/mt, and the Dec/Jan'27 arb roll was sold at -$18.50/mt. Deferred LST spreads traded up across the afternoon, with Q4/1 closing at 0.875c/gal from 0.50c/gal, and Q1/2 was bid up to 4.375c/gal, having closed last night at 3.875c/gal. Nov/Feb'27 LST was getting sold 0.125c/gal before rallying to 0.50c/gal by end window. In butane, there was also deferred spread buying in C4 ENT, with Q4/1 lifted at 0.875c/gal, and Q1/2 trading at 16.00c/gal, up from last night’s close of 15.125c/gal. In the front, Nov/Dec'26 was sold at 1.25c/gal, and the Oct/Nov'26/Dec'26 fly was trading at flat.