Brent Rises above $73/bbl as Tankers Hit In Strait

In the news, two tankers have been damaged near the Strait of Hormuz, according to UKMTO, following overnight reports that Iran’s Revolutionary Guards fired missiles at vessels in the waterway. Qatar’s foreign ministry said Tehran bears full legal responsibility for the attack and any resulting consequences. Separately, Iran’s foreign minister stated that talks with Washington on a final agreement will not proceed while US threats continue, after President Trump warned he would “finish the job” unless a deal is reached. Elsewhere, Russia's Omsk refinery (capacity 460kb/d) has halted operations following a Ukrainian drone strike. As per Reuters sources, the attack damaged CDU-10, which accounts for around 38% of the refinery's capacity, while CDU-11 was also shut after supporting infrastructure was hit. The refinery has suspended gasoline and diesel sales on the St. Petersburg Mercantile Exchange as damage assessments and repair work continue. In Japan, Trade Minister Ryosei Akazawa has clarified that the nation’s ban on jet fuel exports to Russia also applies to shipments routed through third countries or transferred via ship-to-ship operations. The statement follows a report that Russia was preparing to import a Japanese-origin jet fuel cargo amid fuel shortages caused by repeated Ukrainian attacks on its energy infrastructure. Akazawa said authorities will continue working with international partners to prevent sanctions evasion and enforce export controls. In Israel, Energy Minister Eli Cohen has said that a pipeline linking the Gulf to Europe via Israel could significantly reduce Gulf producers' reliance on the Strait of Hormuz, while also bypassing disruptions in the Red Sea. The proposal has been discussed previously but has never progressed due to regional tensions. Finally, as of the time of writing, the front-month (Sep/Oct) and 6-month (Sep/Mar’27) Brent futures spreads are at $0.00/bbl and $0.96/bbl, respectively.

This afternoon in Dated we saw strong Aug DFL buying pre window up to around -5c on the Dated to Lead. We saw roll buying pre window, e.g buying of 3-7 vs Cal Aug, 13-17 Jul 5w at -$0.82/bbl and 20-24 Jul vs Cal Aug at -$0.07/bbl. The physical window was quiet with a major offering 2 Brent cargos but no change in the implied diff. In the paper window we saw selling of CFDs from majors and trades. Aug DFL traded back down to around -21c on the Dated to Lead, before finding some support at the end of the window.

In VLSFO, liquidity decreased as the afternoon progressed on VLSFO, particularly on Sing 0.5. The Aug Sing crack traded between $12.90/bbl and $13.00/bbl. Sing spreads were a touch stronger due to Euro spread buying closing the afternoon at $14.00/mt. E/W buying got taken out in the market leaving Euro 0.5 to go well bid post window. The Euro crack traded up to $4.70/bbl from $4.25/bbl after the European window. Spreads started the buying on Euro 0.5, with Aug/Sep trading up to $12.00/mt from $10.75/mt earlier in the day.

In HSFO, Chinese arbers continued to not participate in the market. Consequently HSFO continued to be fairly rangebound this afternoon. The Aug 380 crack traded between -$7.10/bbl and -$7.00/bbl while Aug/Sep 380 was between $0.75/mt and $1.00/mt. It was a similar story on Barges with the barge crack between -$9.00/bbl and -$9.10/bbl. Aug/Sep barges was implied $2.75/mt.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads were stable in the front, with Aug/Sep trading between $2.90/bbl and $2.95/bbl. E/W firmed initially before selling off on higher cracks, with Aug moving from -$63/mt up to -$61.25/mt, then back down to -$64.50/mt, while Q4 E/W saw physical selling at -$49.50/mt. Kero spreads remained offered in Aug/Oct, with Aug/Sep at $1.75/bbl and Sep/Oct trading at $2/bbl, getting taken out on higher ICE gasoil.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads firmed overall, with Sep/Dec trading from $84.75/mt up to $87/mt, while Sep cracks firmed from $47.90/bbl up to $49.10/bbl. European jet diffs remained steady overall, with Q4 trading at $76.25/mt. Both heating oil spreads and HOGOs weakened, with the Aug HOGO swap moving from 29.4c/gal down to 28.8c/gal.

This afternoon in gasoline, EBOB flat price traded end window at $871.75/mt with MOC balanced. RBBRs were a lot weaker, pushing Aug arbs down from 31c/gal to lows of 29.55c/gal before recovering post-window. EBOB cracks came off with RBBRs, trading down from $32.10/bbl to $30.75/bbl, with Q4'26 valued at $13.05/bbl. Spreads also came off as the front weakened, with Aug/Sep trading down from $53.75/mt to lows of $50.50/mt. E/W was balanced around -$14/bbl with the East remaining quiet, Aug 92 cracks were trading at $16.75/bbl end window.

This afternoon in naphtha, mixed interest in MOPJ MOC with Aug crack trading down to -$3.75/bbl end of window, continuing downward momentum and getting sold down to -$3.95/bbl post window. Cal'27 naphtha crack trades -$8.35/bbl, offered on. Trade buyside of Oct E/W at $37/mt for decent size this afternoon, seeing buying in Oct/Dec EW box up to $4.75/mt. Some pet chem flat price sellers in both Aug and Sep MOPJ on higher crude this afternoon.

This afternoon in NGLs, FEI spreads traded up slightly from the morning levels, seeing Aug/Sep trade at $6.50/mt, up from $5.50/mt at Sing close. Saw some Dec/Dec FEI buying at $51/mt, the same level as yesterday’s close. FEI/MOPJ buying in both Aug and Q4'26, trading at -$79/mt and -$56.50/mt, respectively, with both closing at similar levels end window. LST/FEI weakened across the afternoon as FEI found some strength, with Aug arb trading down from -$211/mt to -$214/mt. Q4 LST/FEI was also trading at -$198/mt, $3 weaker than yesterday’s closing level. Buyside interest in both prompt and deferred LST spreads, with Aug/Sep lifted at -0.5c/gal, and Q4'26/Q1'27 trading at 0.125c/gal. There were also Aug/4Q LST buyers at -1.375c/gal across the afternoon. In butane, C4 ENT spreads also had better buying, with Aug/Sep at -0.125c/gal, and Sep/Oct at -1.25c/gal. In the deferred, there was some Dec/Feb C4 ENT buying at 1.25c/gal. C4/C3 trading in both Aug and Q1 at 19.125c/gal and 17c/gal.