Brent strengthens ahead of expiry

A break above $120/bbl would take the M1 contract to its highest level since 29 Apr and highs last seen in June 2022. Geopolitical risk premia in the market remain high in the aftermath of Houthi attacks on several sites in Saudi Arabia, including its largest oil refinery, Ras Tanura, the Rabigh refinery and a production facility in Abqaiq owned by NOC Saudi Aramco. Meanwhile, Qatari mediators are back in Tehran to push for a US-Iran deal. This follows a peace plan Qatar presented to Iran last weekend that, according to a senior Iranian official, was dismissed as unacceptable. Refined products also remain tight, particularly fuel oil, with sources of The Officials reporting tightness in fuel oil in Singapore and Malaysia, with the Nov'26 VLSFO E/W contract sitting above $200/mt and the Nov'26 HSFO E/W sitting above $150/mt at the time of writing. Further uncertainty stems from Israel's parliamentary elections and the upcoming US midterm congressional vote, with current expectations pointing to a potential re-escalation of the war, following comments made by US President Donald Trump referencing a "mini Operation Epic Fury" against Tehran. In other news, FlyDubai has cancelled all flights to Israel until 30 Nov. Finally, at the time of writing, the Jan/Feb'26 and Jan/Jul'27 Brent futures contracts stand at $3.91/bbl and $17.37/bbl.

This morning, we saw the prompt bouncing back from yesterday’s sell-off, with November leading the Dated complex higher. Nov DFL dipped to $4.80/bbl early before rallying to $5.54/bbl, with refiners buying at $5.30/bbl in size, and last traded at $5.50/bbl, roughly 60c over last night’s close. Dec DFL edged up from $5.99/bbl to $6.22/bbl through selling, while Nov/Dec DFL climbed from -$1.00/bbl to -$0.75/bbl on refiner buying, last at -$0.80/bbl, and has firmed since. Dec/Jan DFL was paid up from a $1.36/bbl low to $1.46/bbl. Nov/Dec Dated was bid up from $2.90/bbl to $3.10/bbl and last traded at $3.07/bbl in size, about 30c up on the day, and has firmed further since.

In the days market, we saw real selling of 23-26 Nov v 30 Nov-03 Dec at $1.00/bbl and 07-11 Dec v Dec going at $1.07/bbl, while 02-03 v 09-10 Dec was sold down from $1.05/bbl to $1.00/bbl.

This morning in Brent/Dubai we gapped lower; the Nov'26 Brent/Dubai opening was around $0.40/bbl lower at -$2.64/bbl and trading down to -$3.12/bbl early on. There was Chinese selling of Nov'26 Dated/Dubai on the way down, and later on, some refiner buying of Jan'27 ICE vs Nov'26 Dubai came in. Post-window, we rallied back with some refiner buying of Dec'26 Brent/Dubai, and Chinese selling of the Nov/Dec'26 Dubai spread. The Nov/Dec'26 Dubai spread was well bid into the window, up to $3.83/bbl, with trade house selling around $3.70/bbl, before coming off to $3.45/bbl. The Nov/Dec'26 Brent/Dubai box dipped to $0.16/bbl into MOC before rallying to $0.51/bbl
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In VLSFO, real buying continued in Sing 0.5% this morning, while Euro 0.5 remained illiquid. Nov/Dec'26 Sing traded 3 dollars higher to $45.00/mt; it traded at $45.00/mt in the window and then sold down to $44.50/mt post-window. Dec/Jan'27 was bid up from $41.00/mt to $43.00/mt. Nov'26 Sing crack opened 55c higher at $30.80/bbl; it continued to trade higher, peaking at $31.20/bbl before selling down to $30.80/bbl in the window. Nov'26 0.5 E/W has been implied around 5 dollars higher at $200.50/mt. Euro 0.5 continued to struggle for liquidity this morning; Nov/Dec'26 traded 50c higher to $17.00/mt in low volume, while Nov'26 crack sold down from -$0.60/bbl to -$0.95/bbl post window.

380 continued to see real buying this morning; Nov/Dec'26 was bid up from $61.75/mt to $64.50/mt before getting offered back down to $62.75/mt, Dec/Jan'27 traded up $1.50/mt to $46.50/mt but came off 75c to $45.75/mt. Nov'26 380 crack opened 35c higher at $13.75/bbl; it was better bid all morning, trading up to $14.20/bbl by window end and then to $14.60/bbl post window. This 380 strength drove Nov'26 380 E/W to an implied all-time high of $157.00/mt, though it has yet to trade. Barge spreads remained thin; Nov/Dec'26 and Dec/Jan'27 traded at $23.00/mt and $21.50/mt, Nov'26 Barge crack weakened from -$10.10/bbl to -$10.50/bbl.

This morning in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads were well offered initially, with Dec/Jan hit down to $2.95/bbl before turning better bid into and post window, trading up to $3.40/bbl. The gasoil E/W firmed post-window, with Dec trading from -$110.25/mt up to -$106/mt, while 2H 27 E/W was offered down to -$56.50/mt. Kero spreads were offered in the Q1/Q3'27 region, while Dec regrade saw buying at $1.30/bbl off combos.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads firmed overall, with Dec/Jan trading from $40/mt up to $43/mt, while Nov swap cracks firmed from $76.50/bbl up to $78.50/bbl.

This mornio $75.5/bbl.

This morning in gasoline 92 was very well offered. 92 cracks got sold down from $14.00/bbl to $11.60/bbl in Nov'26, and Q2'27 was offered at $16.75/bbl. Spreads saw aggressive action in the Nov/Jan'27 region, with Nov/Dec'26 trading down from $3.40/bbl to $2.35/bbl before finding a floor during the window. Nov'26 E/W opened a lot lower at -$0.50/bbl and got sold down to -$1.50/bbl before rebounding to -$0.75/bbl. EBOB saw better selling interest, down to $12.60/bbl in Nov'26 and Nov/Dec'26 traded between $29.00/mt and $30.00/mt.

This morning in NGLs, FEI structure was mega bid. Nov/Dec FEI gapped up overnight trading at $64/mt versus $59/mt. It then went on to trade at $67/mt before normalising to $65/mt.

Dec/Jan FEI also rallied from $55.5/mt to $60/mt by the close. In the long end, Dec/Dec FEI went for $330/mt pre-window before trading at $335/mt and then getting implied $347/mt by front-end aggro buying end window. On screen, Nov FEI was trading at $1092/mt to close. There was strong MOC buying interest this morning, with Nov MOC trading +$1/mt, seeing Asian trade and Chinese interest.

The Arb was gapped down this morning, with Dec LST/FEI trading -$355/mt at the open. It recovered slightly as LST side firmed up with some Trades interest and traded -$350/mt by the close. Q1 LST/FEI went for -$271/mt but was fairly illiquid this morning.
FEI/MOPJ continue to hold gains. Nov FEI/MOPJ traded at highs of $40/mt before retracing to $38/mt by the close. Q1 FEI/MOPJ remained firm, trading at highs of -$23/mt after opening strong at -$26/mt.

FEI/CP continues to be implied stronger through FEI strength, with Dec FEI/CP going to $300/mt and $305/mt after opening at $295/mt. Dec CP remains weak relative to the rest of LPG. Prems are higher, but Dec CP sold down to $725/mt.

The Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4% in a 10-2 vote, with two members pushing for a hike. Chair Warsh said inflation remains elevated and the Fed is ready to act. "We haven't achieved price stability, but we're working on it." "While overall financial conditions are tighter, I’m unwilling and unable to call them TIGHT."

The FOMC reaction looked muted. It wasn’t. Real yields: lower at every tenor Breakevens: higher at every tenor 1y breakeven: +6bp 2s10s: +6bp steeper 10y: still above 5% Bonds aren’t pricing a tighter Fed. They’re pricing a more tolerant one. Concerns about credibility will start again.

Oracle ripped about 11% to roughly $144, its best day since May, after forecasting over $225B in fiscal 2030 revenue and capping new funding at $20 billion. 3. AI infrastructure stocks rallied with it. Google fell 9% after hours after posting negative free cash flow of $9.07B, with search revenue of $63.35B missing estimates. Microsoft jumped as much as 6% after record revenue of $92.3 billion.