Brent Strengthens, Trump Says War Will “End Soon”

US President Donald Trump said that the war in Iran is "going to end soon" in an interview with Kansas City radio station KCMO, adding that the US will "need a guarantee there'll never be a nuclear weapon." The US Central Command (CENTCOM) has reported that US forces have removed mines from the Strait of Hormuz and that the IRGC is no longer in the Strait. Nevertheless, Iran claims to have destroyed a US drone in the East of the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC also claim that a third tanker was hit in the Strait of Hormuz today. In other news, Russia plans to export 2.15 million mt of diesel in November, according to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. This comes alongside plans to extend Russia's ban on diesel exports until the end of January 2027. In Libya, an armed group shut down a valve in the pipeline between the Hamada and Zawiya refineries, according to the country's NOC. The Zawiya refinery has a capacity of 120kb/d and is connected to the country's 300kb/d Sharara oilfield. Finally, at the time of writing, the Jan/Feb'27 and Jan/Jul'27 Brent futures contracts stand at $3.85/bbl and $17.50/bbl, respectively.

This afternoon the Dated complex held steady. Nov'26 DFL slid from a $5.30/bbl high to $4.83/bbl against buying on the way down, with size trading at $5.05/bbl and sellers at $4.95/bbl; $4.95/bbl at the end of the window and last $5.00/bbl. Dec'26 DFL traded $6.12/bbl and eased to $5.80/bbl, with buying at $5.95/bbl in size, $6.04/bbl and $5.99/bbl; $6.00/bbl at the end of the window and back at $6.12/bbl. Nov/Dec'26 Dated was offered lower from $3.18/bbl to $2.85/bbl, with real selling at $3.00/bbl in size, 2.95 and $2.90/bbl, last seen at $2.95/bbl at the end of the window.

In the physical window, a Tradehouse offered Ninian and Forties and a Major offered Oseberg, which weighed on the prompt into the close: Nov'26 DFL came off 15c from $5.10/bbl after 16:15, and the Nov/Dec'26 DFL roll slipped from -$0.94/bbl to -$1.00/bbl.

The days market was active. 02-08 Dec'26 v Dec'26 was paid at $1.95/bbl. 16-20 Nov'26 v Dec'26 softened from a $3.70/bbl high to $3.65/bbl, where buyers came in and held it into the end of the window, while Nov'26 v 23-27 Nov'26 was sold down from -$0.30/bbl to -$0.39/bbl.

This afternoon in Brent/Dubai we ground higher before rallying hard into the close, the Nov'26 Brent/Dubai trading up from -$2.63/bbl to -$1.63/bbl. It was mostly Chinese flow today, sellside on the Dec'26 Brent/Dubai and buyside on the Nov'26 Brent/Dubai. This led to a consistent bid in the Nov/Dec'26 box. The Dubai spreads came off, the Nov/Dec'26 Dubai spread down from $3.45/bbl to $2.62/bbl, with more Chinese selling Nov/Dec'26 spread. The Nov/Dec'26 box rallied from $0.51/bbl to $1.26/bbl.

VLSFO cracks in both regions came off this afternoon with fairly decent size selling in the dec region. Nov Sing crack traded down to $30.25/bbl from $30.65/bbl. Euro came under more pressure as 0.5 E/W still continued to be bid. The Euro crack traded down to -$1.70/bbl from -$1.20/bbl. However, the crack did recover in the window as Nov/Dec Euro went better bid traded back up to -$1.45/bbl. Nov/Dec Euro continued to power up trading up to $18.75/mt from $17.00/mt. Conversely Nov/Dec didn’t really move throughout the day trading around $44.00/mt with no clear axe.

HSFO came under pressure into the window this afternoon. Initially Chinese arbers were buying cracks in 380. However once the buying got taken out HSFO cracks came under pressure, with a fair amount of weakness in the barges. The barge crack sold down to -$11.30/bbl from -$10.70/bbl at lunchtime. The 380 crack followed suit as the 380 E/W remained supported, with Nov trading down to $13.35/bbl from $13.70/bbl. Spreads were largely unmoved in HSFO with Nov/Dec 380 around $63.00/mt and barges $22.00/mt.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads were better bid, with Dec/Jan'27 trading from $3.40/bbl up to $3.60/bbl. E/W was bid in Q1'27 at -$88.00/mt, while Jan'27 was more sell side, with crack selling seen there. Regrade saw trade buying, Nov'26 trading from -$0.25/bbl up to $0.20/bbl and Dec'26 getting lifted up to $1.90/bbl.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads strengthened throughout, with Nov/Dec'26 trading from $63.50/mt up to $65.50/mt, while Jan'27 futures cracks rallied to highs of $71.00/bbl before trading back down to $69.60/bbl. European jet diffs traded higher in Dec'26, from $114.00/mt up to $116.10/mt, while Q4'27 was steady at $122.00/mt.

This afternoon in gasoline we saw RBBRs rally post US open before weakening in the window. There was very little arb selling, as Nov'26 traded up from 13.30c/gal to 16.90c/gal, with Q1'27 finding sellside interest around 27.00c/gal. EBOB cracks continued to weaken in the front, with Nov'26 trading down from $12.90/bbl to $12.50/bbl, and Q3'27 saw more selling at $22.00/bbl. Spreads were soft as well, with Nov/Dec'26 getting offered down from $29.00/mt to $27.75/mt. E/W rallied from $1.00/bbl to $1.50/bbl in Dec'26 on refiner flat price buying before coming off again into close with Nov'26 cracks seeing selling at $13.50/bbl.

This afternoon in naphtha was mixed with cracks trading from -$3/bbl up to -$2.80/bbl. The afternoon was better bid in general with flat price buying in MOPJ driving up cracks and E/W with cracks trading up to -$2.70/bbl and Cals getting lifted -$7.60/bbl. Q1 cracks rallied from -$5.60/bbl up to -$5.20/bbl before easing off to -$5.35/bbl in the window. Spreads were mixed with Nov/Dec Euro trading around $46.25/mt in the window and Jan/Mar buying at $64.50/mt. E/W rallied post morning window from lows of $77.75/mt up to $82.25/mt with Dec/Jan E/W box pricing up to $11.50/mt. MOPJ cracks were implied higher off the back of flat price buying with Cals valued at -$2.50/bbl and Nov/Dec trading up to $48/mt.

This afternoon in NGLs, spreads came off. FEI Nov/Dec'26 traded down to $64.50/mt from the highs of $67.00/mt seen this morning. Dec/Jan'27 softened to $60.00/mt from $62.00/mt at the US open. The Nov'26 LST/FEI was also weaker this afternoon opening at -$403.00/mt before selling off to -$408.00/mt. Dec'26 arb also softened from the morning highs of -$344.00/mt down to -$351.00/mt. There were also some US trades selling of the Dec/Jan'27 arb roll at around -$42.00/mt.

LST structure was weaker this afternoon after initially showing strength at the open. Nov/Dec'26 LST opened at 2.00c/gal before weakening down to 1.50c/gal. Q1/Q2'27 LST was also down from the day highs of 19.00c/gal to 18.50c/gal. Dec/Jan'27 LST was much weaker trading at 36.25c/gal down to 33.75c/gal.

Butane structure was initially a ripper at the open Nov/Dec'26 Butane opened at 16.75c/gal and Dec/Jan'27 opened at 13.50c/gal. Couldn’t keep these levels though and Nov/Dec'26 sold off to 15.75c/gal and Dec/Jan'27 sold off to 12.375c/gal.

C4/C3 also weaker, butane remained levered to LST. Nov'26 C4/C3 printed 72.25c/gal down from 76.75c/gal high yesterday.

There was some real buying interest in the Jan'27 Bunap this afternoon trading at -$110.00/mt and the Dec/Jan'27 Butane MOPJ saw some importer buying at the absolute peak -$105.00/mt before being implied much lower at -$129.00/mt to close.