Brent trades around $93 ahead of US unveiling ‘greatest financial offensive’ against Iran

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned in an FT op-ed that an “economic D-Day is coming for Iran” and threatened to do business with Tehran but gave little detail. Bessent will hold a press conference at 1pm EDT on 24 Aug (6pm BST). Six EU countries, including Germany, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Poland, and Austria want to discuss a mechanism to tax windfall profits of oil companies triggered by the Hormuz crisis at the next EU finance ministers’ meeting in September. Ampol posted record interim profit on Monday as higher refining margins linked to Middle East supply disruptions lifted earnings nearly five-fold, pushing its shares to more than a two-year high. Sinopec reported a 19.3% y/y increase in net profit for the first half of 2026, but also showed that gasoline consumption fell by 7.9% and diesel by 12%, attributing this to high oil prices and accelerated substitution towards new energy. Iraq’s state oil marketer SOMO and QatarEnergy are offering crude through rare tenders that require buyers to load cargoes inside the Strait of Hormuz, multiple trade sources said on Monday. Finally, the Oct/Nov’26 and Oct/Apr’27 Brent futures spreads are at $1.80/bbl and $11.19/bbl respectively.

This morning in Dated we saw selling of 21-25 Sep vs Cal Oct trading at $2.35/bbl, sell side interest in 14-18 Sep v Cal Oct offered at $2.92/bbl and 28-2 Oct v Cal Oct trading at $1.75/bbl. We also saw continued buy side interest in 30-6 Oct vs 5-16 Oct and buying of 5-9 Oct vs Dec ICE. Further down the curve we saw paper buying of Nov/Dec DFL and paper on both sides of 2H27 DFL.

This morning in Brent/Dubai we gapped lower, the Sep BD opening around $1/bbl lower from Fridays close at $1.8/bbl. There was trade buying of Sep through Feb Dubai spreads, trade selling of Sep and Q4 BD, but refiner on the buyside in Sep BD. We initially traded rangebound into the window before moving higher post. We traded up from $1.8/bbl to $2.1/bbl in SepBDd. The boxes also moved higher following a gap lower, trade selling of Nov through Mar BD boxes. The Sep/Oct box traded up from -$1.85/bbl to -$1.6/bbl.

Sep/Oct 380 opened a dollar higher this morning trading at $38.50/mt, these gains were erased in the window where Sep/Oct traded back down to $37.50/mt, it continued to sell off post window and is now trading at $37.00/mt. Sep 380 crack continued to sell off this morning, sell off from -$0.35/bbl to -$0.90/bbl. It was a quiet morning in the Barge complex, Sep/Oct 380 did not trade and is currently around $10.50/mt value, Sep Barge crack is trading at -$11.95/bbl on screen.

Sing 0.5 was slightly better bid overall in the early morning but then came off during and after the window. Sep/Oct Sing traded at $35.00/mt but then sold down to $34.25/mt post window on quite low liquidity. Sep Sing cracks opened higher this morning at $19.00/bbl, however there was real selling during the window and the crack traded down to $18.65/bbl. There was little spoken of Euro 0.5 this morning, Sep/Oct 380 was rangebound trading at $24.50/mt while the Sep crack traded down from $6.25/bbl to $6.00/bbl during the window.

This morning in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads were offered into Q4, with Oct/Nov trading from $5.75 down to $5.55/bbl, while front EW sold off, with Sep trading from -$74.5 down to -$78/mt, hit post window. Kero spreads were offered in Jan/Mar, while Oct regrade was supported off combo buying, trading at -$1.2/bbl. Prompt ICE gasoil spreads sold off throughout, with Sep/Dec trading from $143 down to $138.5/mt, while Oct cracks weakened to $73.5/bbl.

This morning in Gasoline, quiet morning in terms of MOC with MOC slightly better bid. 92 weaker this morning seeing E/W continue to sell off, with small buying in Q4 at -$5.75/bbl from a small trade shop. Sep/Oct/Nov 92 fly sells off from $0.96/bbl to $0.85/bbl. EBOB touch better supported with $34.8/bbl getting lifted on the Sep crack in the morning, trading up to $35.25/bbl end of window. Prompt arb weaker, with small buying interest at -2.25c/gal and -2.5c/gal this morning.

This morning in naphtha was weaker overall, with MOC quieter and less bid than previous sessions. MOPJ cracks were better offered, with Sep selling off from $0.75/bbl to $0.25/bbl and Oct from $0.70/bbl to $0.30/bbl, while spreads saw the sharper move, with Sep/Oct down from $26/mt to $22.5/mt and Oct/Nov to $24.5/mt. E/W was softer as well, with Sep offered down from $48.50/mt to $46/mt, Q4'26 coming off to $43.75/mt and the Nov/Dec box trading around $1.50/mt. NWE naphtha followed the weak tone, with Sep cracks selling off from -$4.30/bbl to -$5/bbl and Nov around -$5.20/bbl, while spreads were offered too, with Sep/Oct down from $23/mt to $21/mt, Oct/Nov around $25/mt and Nov/Dec around $21.25/mt.

This morning in NGLs, FEI spreads were initially better bid by tradehouses, with Dec/Jan trading up from $19/mt to $21/mt, and Nov/Feb lifted $61.5/mt. Sep/Oct FEI traded rangebound this morning from $35/mt to $36.5/mt, and Oct/Nov traded up to $25.5/mt, compared to last week’s close of $24/mt. Sep FEI/MOPJ opened trading at -$58/mt, and strengthened to -$51/mt by end window. Q4 FEI/MOPJ traded at -$63/mt, and Q1'27 was lifted at -$68/mt, up from last Friday’s closing level of -$77/mt. There was also a size seller of Oct/Nov FEI/MOPJ -$41/mt and -$40/mt. End window on screen, Sep FEI flat price was hit at $761/mt with Sep FEI MOC better bid on the day.

Treasuries slipped Friday, led by short-dated notes, after data from S&P Global showed business activity grew at its fastest pace in more than 4 years. 2 yr yields jumped 5bp, 10-year closes at cycle highs 4.21%, 30’s back at 5.27%, gold rallies another 2.%% since Friday open, while the S&P slipped another 0.9%.

This earnings season is the strongest since 2011 - nearly 64% of S&P 500 companies beat guidance, with earnings growth running at +31% YoY - but at 21x forward earnings, that strength is already priced in. As growth inevitably normalizes and comparisons get tougher, the scope for further multiple expansion narrows even as fundamentals stay exceptional.

The Nasdaq 100 ETF, QQQ, has attracted +$10.9 billion in inflows so far in August, now on track for its largest monthly inflow on record. Investors are rotating from semiconductors and software into the broader tech sector. With semiconductor ETF outflows -$2.8 bio month-to date, and software ETF -$610 mio.

Treasuries now offer more income than almost every S&P 500 stock: Just ~3% of S&P 500 stocks now have dividend yields higher than the 10Y Treasury Note yield, the lowest proportion since May 2007. This marks one of the lowest readings on record in data going back to the early 1970s…… The problem is bonds are going down. For now!

Got gold? China acquired +40 tonnes of gold in June via the London OTC market, marking their 2nd-largest monthly purchase since early 2025.