Brent trades higher after Houthis report attack on Saudi oil tanker

The Yemen-based Houthis announced it had struck a Saudi oil tanker with several ballistic missiles off the Red Sea port of Yanbu. In a statement on X, the Houthis' military spokesperson, Yahya Saree, said that the attack was part of its maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia and its “siege for siege” strategy. Since 22 Jul, the group has now targeted 8 Saudi oil tankers. In other news, the White House is expected to extend a waiver of the Jones Act in the coming days in an attempt to keep a ceiling on gasoline prices, according to Reuters. The current waiver is set to expire on 16 Aug, marking it the longest suspension of the Jones Act in its history. This comes days after US President Donald Trump accused US majors ExxonMobil and Chevron of making "too much money" off higher fuel prices, stating that they should "give some of that back to the public." Elsewhere, China has relaxed its limits on refined fuel exports for a second consecutive month in August, granting refiners temporary approval to ship 2.7 million mt for shipments outside of Hong Kong and Macau, of which state-run refiners have been allotted 2.2 million mt, while Zhejiang Petrochemical Co. (majority-owned by Rongsheng Petrochemical) was given 500,000 mt. Refiners will also be allowed to roll over some of their August allowances to September because of the tighter timeline for spot sales, as per a Reuters source. Finally, at the time of writing, the Oct/Nov'26 and Oct/Apr'26 Brent futures stands at $1.70/bbl and $6.13/bbl, respectively.

This morning in Dated Brent, we initially saw Balmo and Sep'26 DFL buying from refiners, with Balmo Aug'26 DFL bid up to $3.50/bbl as spreads moved higher. We then saw selling of $10.00/bbl-14 Aug'26 vs 17-28 Aug'26 at $1.75/bbl in size whilst a major bid 10-14 Aug'26 1w at $1.20/bbl. We also saw selling of $24.00/bbl-28 Aug/Cal Sep'26 at $1.50/bbl and $1.00/bbl-9 Sep/Cal Sep'26 at $0.95/bbl.

This morning in Brent/Dubai we sold off from $5.50/bbl to $5.10/bbl, with again a stronger window pricing closer to $6.00/bbl. The Dubai spreads were bid pre-window by refiner, Sep'26 through Jan'27, but post-window we bounced and traded up to $5.30/bbl. There was continued bank buying of Sep/Oct'26 and Oct/Nov'26 Dubai spreads, which both traded higher on the day. The Sep/Oct'26 Dubai traded up from $0.70/bbl to $0.90/bbl. The Oct/Nov'26 box was offered around $0.42/bbl by a Chinese player and a major.

In VLSFO this morning, Sing 0.5 cracks traded down to $18.90/bbl on screen, which kept a cap on spreads, despite real buying on spreads, which saw Sep/Oct trade around $36.00/mt. Post window, the crack selling dissipated, as a result spreads and cracks bounced up to $36.50/mt and $19.35/bbl, respectively. There was little action in Euro 0.5. Cracks saw some real buying up to $8.05/bbl and were also supported by September E/W selling down to $70.00/mt.

In HSFO, Sing 380 came in better bid again this morning, outright buying in spreads, and cracks saw Bal/Sep, Sep/Oct and Oct/Nov trading up to $32.00/mt, $25.75/mt and $15/mt, respectively. Sep 380 crack traded up from -$2.58/bbl to -$2.30/bbl; there was little traded in deferred cracks. E/W did not see much outright buying; however, it was implied as high as $45.50/mt from last night's close of $39.50/mt on the back of the spread and crack strength. 3.5% barges were fairly quiet this morning, with the crack trading marginally lower to -$9.45/bbl, while the spreads saw little price movement.

This morning in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads were offered in size on screen, Sep/Dec'26 getting lifted as ICE gasoil rallied. Front E/W saw aggressive physical selling initially, trading down to -$78.00/mt before finding support and moving back to -$75.00/mt into the end of the window. Kero spreads remained supported, holding Sep'26 regrade trade at -$0.55/bbl.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads opened lower before rallying post window, with Sep/Dec'26 trading from lows of $120.00/mt up to $140.25/mt, while Oct'26 cracks rallied to $61.80/bbl. Heating oil spreads firmed post-window, while HOGOs sold off, with the Aug'26 HOGO swap down to 26.75c/gal.

It was a stronger morning overall in gasoline, with RBBRs better bid, the East supported and E/W rallying. 92 was firmer, with Sep'26 cracks moving from $16.00/bbl to $16.40/bbl, while spreads strengthened, with Sep/Oct'26 moving from $2.30/bbl to $3.10/bbl and Oct/Nov'26 from $2.00/bbl to $2.50/bbl. E/W rallied with the East, trading up from around -$11.00/bbl to -$10.30/bbl. EBOB was also strong, with Sep'26 cracks moving from $24.80/bbl to $26.40/bbl, while spreads firmed, with Sep/Oct'26 moving from $68.00/mt to $73.00/mt and Oct/Nov'26 around $41.25/mt–$41.75/mt. Arbs were bid, with Sep'26 trading at 12.00c/gal, and Oct'26 at 19.70c/gal.

This morning in naphtha, cracks opened weaker in both regions, driven by real selling in Sep'26 MOPJ flat price, with selling on the flat price down to the equivalent of around -$1.35/bbl on the Sep'26 MOPJ crack. Spreads were better offered, seeing Sep/Oct'26 MOPJ flat price trading down to $14.00/mt. Cracks recovered once the Sep'26 MOPJ flat price selling got taken out, seeing Sep'26 Europe crack trading up from lows of -$5.20/bbl to -$4.80/bbl end of window, still lower than yesterday's closing level of -$4.75/bbl. Interest in E/W was better on the sell side, with Sep'26 E/W trading relatively range-bound this morning, valued at $37.00/mt end of window, with selling in the Jan/Feb'27 E/W box this morning at $1.50/mt. Relatively quiet morning in terms of MOC, with Sep'26 MOPJ MOC better offered, with some buying in Oct'26 MOC.

This morning in NGLs, Sep/Oct'26 FEI opened the morning trading at $17.00/mt, $1 weaker than yesterday’s close. There was also some early Oct/Nov'26 FEI selling at $8.00/mt, before it strengthened to close the morning at $9.00/mt. The Dec'26 27/ Dec'26 28 FEI interest returned today, getting lifted at $32.00/mt, before softening $2 to print at $30.00/mt by end window. FEI/MOPJ interest in both prompt and deferred, with Sep'26 trading at -$67.50/mt, and Cal 28 at -$78.00/mt. Sep'26 LST/FEI was trading at the -$275.00/mt level, compared to last night’s closing level of -$277.00/mt. Also had buying of the Sep'26 LST/NWE arb at -$130.00/mt. Post window, Oct'26 C4 ENT/MOPJ was lifted at -$227.00/mt. On screen, Sep'26 FEI flat price was at both $630.00/mt and $631.00/mt during the pricing window

Risk assets are rallying because three narratives have aligned: stronger earnings, easing energy prices and a softer short-end rates outlook. Yesterday's earnings from Caterpillar and Palantir, together with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's comments suggesting a Hormuz reopening deal could be close, helped push the S&P 500 to fresh all-time highs, with the Dow joining European and UK indices at record levels.

The S&P is up almost 6% in 4 sessions. Per BTIG's Brian Krinsky, a 5%+ 4-day surge has only happened 3 times before - 1999, 2000, and November 2020. The Nasdaq 100 is up ~9.3% over the same stretch, ranking among Tech's sharpest 4-day rebounds around major shocks of the past two decades - GFC, Covid, the 2022 hiking cycle, Liberation Day.

The mechanism tying it together: falling crude is dragging short-term inflation expectations lower - 1-year inflation swaps at new cycle lows, 2-year yields breaking trendline support, and OIS no longer pricing a Fed hike next month. That's the liquidity backdrop letting equities run.
Underneath it, the economy isn’t rolling over. Yesterday's data: trade deficit narrows, exports hold, JOLTS openings stay elevated with contained quits and layoffs, and factory/capex orders improve. Growth and jobs still intact...

Other moves:
- Chinese Yuan hits a 42-month high vs. the dollar
- Palantir's best day since April 2025, +29%
- AMD falls over -10% despite beating on earnings and guidance
- SpaceX shares down almost 9% after hours post-earnings
- KOSPI surged +4.8%, triggering a 5-minute program buying halt
- Bank of Korea buying physical gold for the first time in 13 years, as gold breaks higher from consolidation.
- Copper above $14,000, partly an AI demand-side story
- Token prices in historic freefall as compute shifts to cheaper Chinese models