Brent crude prices stable and on track for weekly gain

Prices are on track for a weekly gain, rising from $90/bbl as the US and Iran trade attacks, raising fears of renewed war across the Middle East. US retail diesel rose to a record, with the national average reaching $5.85/gal, above the former peak set in June 2022. Ukraine attacked a small service ship involved in planned repair works at the CPC oil terminal in the Black Sea, with the attack putting the scheduled works in limbo, raising uncertainty over CPC’s future crude-loading operations. Spanish minister for ecological transition Sara Aagesen Muñoz called on the EU to establish a climate adaptation fund, financed by measures including the permanent levy on oil and gas profits to help it fund protections from extreme events driven by climate change. Companies with close ties to the Trump administration are working on deals to gain access to Venezeula’s oil resources, including Sable Offshore to develop oilfields, while Primavera also signed an oilfield development agreement on Wednesday. Finally, the Nov/Dec’26 and Nov/May’27 Brent futures spreads are at $3.68/bbl and $14.35/bbl respectively.

Fairly quiet morning in Dated with some better sell side interest following the rally over the last couple of days. We saw balmo Sep DFL trade back down to $5.3/bbl and Chinese selling Oct/Nov Dated down to $3.92/bbl. 14-18 Sep 1-week was offered down $0.75/bbl by a major and 7-11 Sep vs 14-30 Sep hit low at $0.4/bbl. However did see buying of 12-16 Oct v Cal Oct lifted at $0.2/bbl.

This morning in Brent/Dubai we initially traded higher, but there was strong selling of Brent/Dubai boxes by trade, strong selling of Brent/Dubai by banks. We moved lower into MOC, the Oct'26 Brent/Dubai trading down from $2.90/bbl to $2.10/bbl, trading range-bound after. Bank on offer side, producer on bid. There was also refiner selling of Oct/Dec'26 spread between $7.40/bbl to $7.37/bbl. There continued to be product selling of Q2'27 and Q3'27 Brent/Dubai, as well as trade selling of bal Brent/Dubai at -$4.20/bbl.

380 complex traded at similar levels to yesterday evening, MOC was better offered, Oct/Nov'26 was range-bound trading at $16.50/mt in limited volume while Oct'26 crack traded 20c higher in the window from -$5.50/bbl to -$5.30/bbl. There was little traded in Barges this morning, Oct/Nov'26 last traded at $13.75/mt while Oct'26 crack traded between -$11.10/bbl and -$10.90/bbl.

Sing 0.5 saw decent volume traded this morning, however price action remained muted. Oct/Nov'26 Sing traded between $35.50/mt and $36.00/mt and Nov/Dec'26 between $24.50/mt and $25.00/mt. Oct'26 Sing crack again traded in large volume on screen, getting bid up from $18.00/bbl to $18.40/bbl. It was a quiet morning for Euro 0.5, spreads have yet to trade and the Oct'26 crack was slightly better offered post window trading down to $3.90/bbl. Oct'26 0.5 E/W has therefore been implied around $1.50/mt higher to $91.00/mt.

This morning in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads saw some selling in Dec/Jan'27, trading from $4.40/bbl down to $4.25/bbl. Front E/W opened higher, lifted up to -$90.00/mt before selling down to -$94.00/mt into end window. Front regrade was well bid at -$1.75/bbl, while Oct/Nov'26 kero saw selling from $4.00/bbl down to $3.80/bbl. Prompt ICE gasoil spreads weakened overall, with Nov/Dec'26 trading from $60.00/mt down to $58.00/mt, while Nov'26 cracks sold down to $73.60/bbl.

This morning in gasoline, MOC better offered in Oct'26. Spreads better offered in both regions this morning, seeing Oct/Nov'26 92 getting sold down to $6.70/bbl end of window with the Oct'26 92 crack trading $21.60/bbl. Some buying from trade in Q2'27 E/W this at -$9.80/bbl and -$10.00/bbl. European refiner sell side of Oct/Jan'27 EBOB at $150.75/mt for decent size, with Oct/Dec'26 EBOB spreads seeing far more sell side interest this morning.

This morning in naphtha was firmer early, with MOC better bid alognside MOPJ flat-price buying, front E/W bid, backend cracks supported and NWE front cracks initially bid, before the tone softened into the window. MOPJ cracks were mixed, with Q1'27 moving from around $0.10/bbl to $0.20/bbl before easing back to $0.05/bbl, Q2'27 around -$3.15/bbl and Cal 27 around -$3.05/bbl; spreads were thin and offered, with Oct/Nov'26 easing from $32.00/mt to $31.50/mt, Nov/Dec'26 slipping to around $29.00/mt, Dec/Feb'27 at $46.50/mt and Jan/May'27 around $83.50/mt. E/W was stronger early on before seeing some scale back selling, with Oct'26 moving from $52.50/mt to $55.50/mt, Dec'26 from $51.00/mt to $53.00/mt and Q1'27 up to $43.25/mt, while boxes were bid, with Dec/Jan'27 around $5.00/mt, Jan/Feb'27 $3.75/mt and Q2/Q3'26 $5.75/mt. NWE naphtha followed the early bid before giving back some strength, with Oct'26 cracks moving up to -$3.10/bbl before easing to -$3.40/bbl, Cal 27 improving from -$6.95/bbl to -$6.85/bbl and Q1'27 around -$4.70/bbl; spreads were illiquid and better offered too, with Q4/Q1'27 at $67.00/mt, Nov/Dec'26 at $27.50/mt and Dec/Jan'27 around $18.00/mt.

This morning in NGLs was characterised by FEI strength in the front. As flat price traded higher, spreads followed suit, with Oct/Nov'26 trading up to $34.00/mt, and Nov/Dec'26 at $30.00/mt, up from their opening levels of $30.00/mt and $28.00/mt. As FEI continued to be bid higher, the Oct'26 LST/FEI sold off down to a trading level of -$374.00/mt, having first traded at -$366.00/mt. FEI/MOPJs also stepped up in Q4'26, trading up from -$51.00/mt to -$48.00/mt, where it eventually settled post window. CP interest today with Oct/Nov'26 trading at $15.00/mt, and Oct'26 FEI/CP was lifted at $149.00/mt, up from last night’s closing level of $144.00/mt. FEI eventually found a top heading into window and softened slightly with flat price better offered. As a result, spreads closed the morning slightly weaker than earlier highs, and the Oct'26 LST/FEI strengthened back to print -$371.00/mt at close. End window on screen Oct'26 FEI flat price was trading $794.00/mt.

Correlation between the 10Y and oil is the highest since the GFC.

German & Dutch gas storage levels look dangerously low heading towards winter.

The Dutch central bank moved 86 tonnes of gold out of New York and Ottawa to London. More than 1/4 of everything they held in North America. Done quietly between March and August, announced today. New York went from 31.3% of their reserves to 18.5%. London went from 18.1% to 32.1%. Stated reason is “increasing geopolitical unrest” and crisis readiness.

Short interest in the median S&P 500 stock is up to 3.2% of market cap, the highest level since 2009. This is now approaching the 2008 Financial Crisis peak of ~3.8%. By comparison, during the 2022 bear market, this percentage was ~1.7%. Furthermore, short interest among the most heavily shorted 10% of S&P 500 stocks is up to 8.0% of market cap, the highest in 8 years. Even during the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble burst, short interest never surged to these levels. The short trade is starting to look overcrowded.

Snowflake stock, surges over +22% after reporting stronger than expected earnings due to AI demand.