Brent Firms Alongside EIA Reported Crude Draw

Saudi Aramco has released its October OSPs, with Arab Extra Light and Light for Asian destinations held steady at Dubai -$1.50 and -$2, respectively and Arab Medium and Heavy increased by $1 m/m to Dubai -$1 and -$2.35, respectively. In other news, six commodity vessels translated the Strait of Hormuz on 02 Sep (Wednesday), down from 11 the previous day and below the 10-day average of 13, according to Reuters. Iraq increased its oil exports to 2.34mb/d in August from 1.35mb/d in July, according to Reuters. Iraq's September exports also expected to increase amid Iranian approvals for Iraqi tankers passing through Hormuz. Meanwhile, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has said the country will temporarily reduce its oil output slightly this year, downgrading its oil output forecast to a 17-year low amid unscheduled refinery maintenance. The forecasts are expected to be finalised at the end of September and have reduced oil production estimates for 2026-29 by between 16 and 20 million mt, compared to the last outlook published in May. Finally, at the time of writing, the Nov/Dec'26 and Nov/May'27 Brent futures spreads stand at $3.90/bbl and $15.05/bbl, respectively.

This afternoon in Dated we saw DFLs ease following this morning’s rally before rallying again into the window with Balmo getting lifted again up to $6.00/bbl. Pre-window we saw 14-18 Sep'26 1w trade at $0.90/bbl and 7-11 Sep vs 14-30 Sep trade at $0.80/bbl. We also saw Bal-Sep'26 vs 28-2 Oct bought at $1.76/bbl in size. The physical window was quiet with no bids or offers whilst in the paper window we saw paper on the buy side of CFDs. 7-11 Sep CFD was lifted up to $6.45/bbl with majors buying and 21-25 Sep CFD was lifted up to $5.78/bbl by trades and majors. Post-window we saw Nov'26 DFL buying and continued balmo DFL buy side interest, bid up to $6.10/bbl.

This afternoon in Brent/Dubai we continued to trade rangebound, the Oct Brent/Dubai trading between $2.50/bbl to $2.85/bbl. Around mid-afternoon buyers of Dubai spreads stepped in, the Oct/Nov Dubai spread well bid between $4.60/bbl to $4.80/bbl by fund and tradehouse. This sent the boxes slightly lower as Brent spreads softened. The Oct/Nov box traded -$1.15/bbl to -$1.40/bbl. There was refiner selling of Q1 Brent/Dubai which traded $2.85/bbl to $2.80/bbl.

In VLSFO, Sing 0.5 was stable this afternoon, there was limited liquidity on spreads, Oct/Nov'26 traded between $35.50/mt and $35.75/mt while Nov/Dec'26 traded around $23.75/mt. Oct'26 Sing crack traded in decent volume but there was little price action, it traded between $18.15/bbl and $18.45/bbl. It was a similar story for Euro 0.5, Oct/Nov'26 traded between $16.50/mt and $17.00/mt in low volume and Oct'26 crack was range-bound trading around $4.00/bbl.

HSFO saw 380 spreads rather muted this afternoon with Sep/Oct'26 trading between $16.50/mt and $17.00/mt while the Oct'26 crack sold off 25c from -$5.50/bbl to -$5.70/bbl. Barge spreads sold off during the window with Oct/Nov'26 trading down from $17.00/mt to $16.00/mt and then continued to sell off post window to $14.50/mt. Oct'26 crack was range-bound trading between -$10.70/bbl and -$10.70/bbl. Oct'26 380 e/w was implied higher from $31.00/mt to $33.00/mt.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads were better bid in Oct/Nov'26, while Nov/Dec'26 saw scale back selling at $5.65/bbl and $5.70/bbl. Front E/W strengthened on lower ICE gasoil, moving from -$102.00/mt up to -$97.00/mt, lifted last. Dec'26 regrade was lifted up to $2.90/bbl, while the Nov/Dec'26 regrade roll saw good selling at -$2.05/bbl.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads traded range-bound, with Sep/Dec'26 trading between $201.00/mt and $207.00/mt, last at $202.00/mt, while cracks traded around $75.50/bbl in Nov'26. European jet diffs were well bid in Dec'26, trading up to $108.25/mt.

This afternoon in gasoline, MOC better bid by trade in Oct'26 with small sells side interest in Nov'26 EBOB MOC. Relatively quiet window with some sell side interest in Oct/Nov'26 EBOB seeing $81.50/mt getting hit by a small trade with buyside interest of the Oct/Nov'26/Dec'26 EBOB fly at $24.50/mt. Majors buyside of the Q2'27 + Q3'27 Arb strip this afternoon with real players and market makers selling them at 26.65c/gal. Trade scale back sellers of the Q2'27 arb at 30.50c/gal and 31c/gal.

This afternoon in naphtha was mixed, with MOC better offered, EU cracks bid through the afternoon, and spreads staying supported on low volume. NWE naphtha strengthened from the morning, with Oct'26 cracks moving from around -$4.10/bbl to -$3.50/bbl post-window, while Q1'27 improved from around -$5.05/bbl to -$4.90/bbl and Cal 27 held around -$7.00/bbl. Spreads were stronger earlier, with Dec/Jan'27 up to $18.00/mt, Oct/Nov'26 up to $32.50/mt and Oct/Dec'26 around $61.25/mt, though Nov/Dec'26 softened post-window to $29.50/mt. E/W was mixed but firmer versus the morning, with Oct'26 ending around $55.00/mt, while the Oct/Dec'26 box came off from $3.50/mt to $3.00/mt and Q4'26 was around $53.00/mt. MOPJ was quiet on cracks but firmer where it traded, with Oct'26 trading at $2.70/bbl post-window; spreads were higher but illiquid, with Nov/Dec'26 moving from $30.00/mt to $31.00/mt, Dec/Jan'27 from $22.50/mt to $23.00/mt and Oct/Nov'26 up to $34.50/mt.

This afternoon in NGLs, FEI spreads traded up slightly with flat prices. Oct/Nov'26 was trading at $31.00/mt, and Nov/Dec'26 was bid up to $29.00/mt, compared to $26.00/mt where it closed this morning. There was some Dec/Dec'26 selling at $147.00/mt, up from yesterday’s closing level of $138.00/mt, and Sep/Oct'26 27 was lifted at -$5.00/mt. Oct'26 LST/FEI was traded up to -$365.00/mt, and Q1'27 was getting sold at -$268.00/mt. There was importer buying of Oct'26 LST/CP at -$222, which eventually strengthened to -$221.00/mt by close. LST spreads traded up across the afternoon in both the prompt and deferred. Oct/Nov'26 LST sold at 0.50c/gal, and Nov/Dec'26 was trading at 0.125c/gal, both 0.125c/gal higher than their respective levels at last night’s close. Q2/4 was trading repeatedly at -0.75c/gal, and Q4/1 was trading at 1.25c/gal, where it eventually closed the afternoon. In butane, Oct'26 C4ENT flat price was trading range-bound from 119.125c/gal to 119.50c/gal, and there was scale-back buying of Oct'26 C4/C3 from 40.00c/gal down to 39.25c/gal, where it closed the afternoon. Oct/Nov'26 C4 ENT was also getting sold at 1.75c/gal, up 0.25c/gal from the close of yesterday. The Oct'26 C4ENT/Naphtha weakened across the afternoon, trading at both -$244.00/mt and -$247.00/mt, before rallying into the close to end the afternoon at a -$243.00/mt print.