Brent Declines as Trump Claims Iranian Denuclearisation Progress

In the news, US President Trump has told reporters that the “denuclearisation of Iran is moving along well,” and that the meetings in Qatar have been good. Envoys Witkoff and Kushner are in Qatar to meet mediators, though Iran continues to maintain that no direct talks have been planned. Elsewhere, Ukraine has struck Russia's Ufa oil refinery, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirming the attack as Kyiv continues to intensify long-range strikes deep inside Russian territory. Taking to X, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has reinforced that the nation’s plan for “imposing Ukrainian long-range sanctions is being implemented." In Russia, the nation has begun importing gasoline by sea from India to help ease fuel shortages caused by repeated Ukrainian attacks on its energy infrastructure. According to Reuters sources, at least 60kmt of gasoline has already been shipped, with Moscow reportedly planning to import around 400kmt/month from countries including India and Belarus as domestic fuel supplies remain under pressure. In other news, OPEC+ will likely agree to another hike in output targets from August, as per Reuters sources. The target is reportedly to be around 188kb/d, in line with targets for June and August. Finally, Swiss-based commodities trading house Mercuria and Italian oil major Eni have agreed to establish a 50:50 trading joint venture, as firms continue to position themselves to benefit from heightened market volatility. Headquartered in Geneva, the venture will trade crude oil, refined products, biofuels, natural gas, LNG, and LPG. As of the time of writing, the Sep/Oct’26 and the Sep/Mar’27 Brent futures spreads are at -$0.41/bbl and -$0.02/bbl, respectively.In the news, US President Trump has told reporters that the “denuclearisation of Iran is moving along well,” and that the meetings in Qatar have been good. Envoys Witkoff and Kushner are in Qatar to meet mediators, though Iran continues to maintain that no direct talks have been planned. Elsewhere, Ukraine has struck Russia's Ufa oil refinery, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirming the attack as Kyiv continues to intensify long-range strikes deep inside Russian territory. Taking to X, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has reinforced that the nation’s plan for “imposing Ukrainian long-range sanctions is being implemented." In Russia, the nation has begun importing gasoline by sea from India to help ease fuel shortages caused by repeated Ukrainian attacks on its energy infrastructure. According to Reuters sources, at least 60kmt of gasoline has already been shipped, with Moscow reportedly planning to import around 400kmt/month from countries including India and Belarus as domestic fuel supplies remain under pressure. In other news, OPEC+ will likely agree to another hike in output targets from August, as per Reuters sources. The target is reportedly to be around 188kb/d, in line with targets for June and August. Finally, Swiss-based commodities trading house Mercuria and Italian oil major Eni have agreed to establish a 50:50 trading joint venture, as firms continue to position themselves to benefit from heightened market volatility. Headquartered in Geneva, the venture will trade crude oil, refined products, biofuels, natural gas, LNG, and LPG. As of the time of writing, the Sep/Oct’26 and the Sep/Mar’27 Brent futures spreads are at -$0.41/bbl and -$0.02/bbl, respectively.

This afternoon in Brent/Dubai, we traded higher and there was tradehouse buying of Sep Brent/Dubai, with the Aug Brent/Dubai very quiet. We drifted up from $4.60/bbl to $4.84/bbl. Dubai spreads continued to trade weak, with trade selling of Aug/Sep around -$1.10/bbl. There was bank selling of Bal Jul at $6.05/bbl to $6/bbl. The boxes all moved up, major on the bid in the Sep/Oct and Oct/Nov boxes with nothing trading.

Sing 0.5 weakened into the afternoon, with Sing cracks first offered down on screen, which saw Sing spreads then come under pressure. Aug/Sep Sing traded down fairly quickly to $14.50/mt before running into some buying. This helped stem the flow on the Sing crack, which closed the day around $13.00/bbl. Euro 0.5 also came under some pressure due to Sing, with the Euro crack selling down to $5.15/bbl and Aug/Sep Euro closing the afternoon at $12.00/mt

In HSFO, it was a more liquid afternoon in barges. We saw Chinese arbers buy side on defered flat price. Banks were sellside on Aug 380 crack down to -$7.15/bbl which was quickly absorbed. Cal 380 crack traded at -$8/bbl adding further pressure to spreads where we saw tradehouses scale back buyside in the Q1/Q2'27 region. During the barge window we saw trade houses scale back buy barge cracks, which faded quickly, with most of the barge crack trading around -$9.05/bbl in Aug.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads were bid with ICE gasoil selling off, with Aug/Sep trading to $2.85/bbl. E/W rallied in the front, with Aug trading from -$52.50/mt up to -$45.50/mt. Regrade was mixed, while Bal kero saw strong buying up at $2.80/bbl.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads dumped across the curve, with Sep/Dec trading from $87.50/mt down to $80.75/mt, while September cracks moved from $49/bbl down to $47.10/bbl. European jet diffs were weaker in August, trading from $77/mt down to $75.50/mt. Both heating oil spreads and HOGOs weakened, with the Aug HOGO swap from 30.8c/gal down to 30.1c/gal.

This afternoon in gasoline, EBOB flat price traded end window at $856.50/mt with MOC well offered. RBBRs ripped again, trading up almost 2 dollars in the front, with arbs seeing scaleback selling from 29c/gal up to 30.85c/gal. EBOB cracks were strong as well, with Aug trading up from $30.90/bbl to $31.75/bbl and Q4 was valued at $31.40/bbl. Spreads were also bidside as Aug/Sep firmed from $47/mt to $48/mt. E/W traded down to -$13/bbl before recovering to -$12.70/bbl, with 92 cracks valued at $18.60/bbl post-window.

This afternoon in naphtha, NWE MOC better bid with July naphtha crack trading -$3/bbl end of window. Europe generally weaker for the majority of the afternoon, seeing crack rolls trade lower with Q4/Q1 naphtha crack trading down from $1/bbl to $0.85/bbl, whilst interest in Q4/Q1 MOPJ flat price remains buyside seeing the Q4/Q1 E/W box price higher. Selling interest in Sep crack this afternoon, with Cal'27 buying up to -$8.10/bbl. E/W continues to trade higher, trading up to $30.50/mt end of window with the Aug/Sep E/W box up $2.50/mt on the day.

This afternoon in NGLs, FEI spreads traded up slightly, with Aug/Sep trading at $10/mt, and Dec'26/Dec'27 was lifted at $51/mt, having traded at $48/mt during the morning window. LST/FEI interest in both prompt and deferred, seeing Aug arb trade down to -$202/mt and Q4 at -$186/mt. We had Cal'28 buying in FEI and LST/FEI at $479/mt and -$152.50/mt, respectively. LST spread buying in the deferred with Q1/2'27 getting lifted at 5.5c/gal, and there was also US trade on the buyside of Cal'27/Cal'28 at 4.75c/gal. In the front Jul/Aug LST was trading at -0.125c/gal, where it eventually settled post window, and Sep/Dec LST was also trading at the same level. In butane, we had some spread buying in C4 ENT Aug/Nov at -0.875c/gal, and the Q4 C4/C3 was lifted at 19.125c/gal, up from yesterday’s closing level of 18.5c/gal.