Brent Slides as Russia’s Saratov Refinery is Hits

In the news, Russia's Saratov refinery has halted crude processing after a Ukrainian drone strike damaged its sole crude distillation unit (CDU-6), according to Reuters sources. The unit has a processing capacity of around 20kmt/d and is the refinery's only primary processing unit. Related, Russia has imposed a diesel export ban as part of a broader package of measures aimed at supporting the domestic fuel market, after repeated Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries triggered fuel shortages and sharp price increases. Drivers across several regions are facing long queues at filling stations as disruptions to refining operations continue to tighten diesel and gasoline supplies. Elsewhere, the CFTC has blocked CME Group's proposed launch of 24/7 crude oil futures trading, delaying the contract while it continues to assess whether round-the-clock trading aligns with regulatory requirements. CME had sought to self-certify the contract on 08 July despite an ongoing public consultation. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said the regulator would not take a "one-size-fits-all approach" to 24/7 futures trading across different asset classes. In other news, Iraq has reaffirmed that it has no plans to leave OPEC, though Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi said the country is seeking a fairer production quota within the group. The comments follow a Reuters report in June that Baghdad had considered exiting OPEC unless it was allowed to significantly increase output. Finally, as of the time of writing, the front-month (Sep/Oct) and 6-month (Sep/Mar’27) Brent futures spreads are at $0.24/bbl and $1.98/bbl, respectively.

This afternoon in Dated we saw the curve move lower post window with Aug DFL getting hit down on screen. In the window we selling of 3-7 Aug 1w at $0.00/bbl from a trade, 3-7 Aug 2w at $0.10/bbl and 17-21 Aug 2w at $0.08/bbl. A trade and major sold 13-17 Jul CFD down to -$0.80/bbl and 20-24 Jul CFD down to -$0.45/bbl. The physical window was quiet again with a major offering 2 Brent cargos but the phys diff was fairly unchanged around -115c.

VLSFO relaxed into the afternoon today in both regions. Heading into the window we saw selling come in on spreads which then filtered into cracks. The Aug Sing and Euro cracks traded down to $15.45/bbl and $6.00/bbl, respectively. After a strong morning on Euro spreads the Aug/Sep closed the afternoon around $18.00/mt while Aug/Sep Sing traded down to $22.00/mt.

A fairly uneventful afternoon on HSFO. Chinese arbers initially came in to sell Nov 380 cracks however there was not a huge amount of volume and hence had very little impact. The front 380 crack closed the day up off the back of stronger barge cracks and 380 E/W. The 380 cracks got up to -$6.25/bbl in the front while the 380 E/W traded up to $16.00/mt. The barge crack went bid in the window closing the afternoon around -$8.80/bbl. Spreads remained fairly resolute in both regions with Aug/Sep 380 and barges trading around $2.50/mt and $4.00/mt, respectively.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads saw scale back buying on lower IPE, with Sep/Oct trading from $4.50/bbl early on down to $4.10/bbl during the window. Front E/W was supported, with Aug at -$71/mt, while Q4 was bid by physical between -$60.50/mt and -$60/mt. Regrade was offered on kero crack selling, trading down to -$0.90/bbl in Sep.

ICE gasoil spreads sold off, with Sep/Dec trading from $120/mt down to $107.50/mt post window, while Sep cracks sold down to $55.40/bbl. European jet diffs moved lower in the front, with Aug down to $59/mt, while Q4 firmed to $81/mt. Both heating oil spreads and HOGOs weakened, with the Aug HOGO swap moving from 31.1c/gal to 30.5c/gal.

Gasoline was choppy again this afternoon, with RBBRs trading weaker, which put pressure on arbs as aug traded down from 32c/gal to 30.55c/gal and there was Q4 arb selling at 26.60c/gal. There was some buying in EBOB but front cracks came off from $32.95/bbl to $32.30/bbl and Q4 was trading at $14.30/bbl. Aug/Sep weakened from $60/mt to $58/mt as the front came off but there was tradehouse buying of Sep/Dec at $136/mt. E/W went better bid post-window, with a major bidding Aug at -$15.80/bbl and 92 cracks were valued at $16.55/bbl.

This afternoon in naphtha, MOC better bid with very little crack action during the window, seeing the Aug naphtha crack trading rangebound between -$2.20/bbl. and -$2.15/bbl. Buying of Dec/Jan Naphtha at $4.50/mt with the Dec/Jan E/W box getting lifted at $4.50/mt by a fund. Outright scale back buying interest in Oct/Nov MOPJ at $13.50/mt this afternoon, scaling back 50c on lower crude down to $12.50/mt.

This afternoon in NGLs, Aug/Sep FEI traded up to $16.50/mt, before coming off slightly to settle at $15/mt. Sep/Oct was trading at $4/mt the same level as earlier this morning. LST/FEI traded at -$235/mt in Aug and was getting sold at -$207/mt in Q4 across the afternoon. Had a buying of Q1 as well at -$179/mt. LST spreads were weaker today, as we saw Aug/Dec trade at -1.375c/gal before closing at -1.625c/gal, and Sep/Jan at -0.875c/gal. Q426/Q127 traded down from 0.5c/gal to 0.375c/gal across the afternoon. Had some ENT/LST selling at -2.5c/gal, the same trading level as yesterday’s close. A quiet afternoon in Butane, seeing Aug/Sep C4 ENT weaken from 0.5c/gal to 0.125c/gal, and Aug flat price trade in line with crude. There was also some C4/C3 LST selling in Q4'26 and Jan'27 at 21.25c/gal and 20.25c/gal, respectively.